RookieBlitz.com will examine the playoff contenders and playoff hopefuls for 2009 through the first 12 weeks of the NFL season. The rest of the league can be summed up in five words, get ready for next season.
Here it is, the power rankings, playoff edition; brought to you by RookieBlitz.com.
1. New Orleans Saints (11-0): The combination of one of the greatest offenses in NFL history combined with a much-improved defense (22 Ints, 10 FF, 7 TD) has New Orleans at #1. Drew Brees is having another MVP caliber year; they have three capable running backs and multitude of weapons at the receiver position. There isn’t one star in this offensive attack, as 19 different players have scored touchdowns in 2009. After handling the Patriots on Monday night football, the Saints are “the real deal” and have regular season perfection on their radar. While that would be a great feat, the real prize would be a trip to the team’s first Superbowl. In order to achieve that feat, they must go through the buzz saw that is Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.
2. Indianapolis Colts (11-0): For the sixth time in seven seasons, the Colts have clinched the AFC South title again. With Peyton Manning being his usual prolific self, It’s no surprise that they rank third in total offense with 393 YPG. While the offense has been superior all year, the defense has been mediocre (332 YPG) and the rushing attack isn’t prevalent enough in the offense (87.6 YPG). In five out of their past six games, the Colts have had to make second half comebacks to stay perfect. In order to not be a first round catastrophe again this year, they must stay relevant in the 1st half as a second half rally will not always be successful against the powerhouses in the AFC.
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-1): It was hard for me not to put the Vikings at the #1 slot, as I believe they could defeat both the Saints and the Colts on any given Sunday. However, until the ranks of the unbeaten fall, the Vikings can sit in the #3 slot. Brett Favre has been a staple of efficiency (24 TD, 3 Int), Peterson is a dominant force and Percy Harvin + Sidney Rice have developed into a surprisingly dynamic duo that has dominated opposing defenses. An electric offense coupled with a defense that ranks 9th in total defense makes the Vikings a legitimate Super bowl contender.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3): By a show of hands, who picked the Bengals to win the AFC North in 2009? I’m waiting….. I don’t see any hands? Why is that? Could it be because nobody would ever think that the Bengals would even be relevant after the disaster of a season they had in 2008? And I don’t blame you with the likes of the Superbowl champion Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in the same division. It’s been a fairytale story in 2009 for Cincinnati. They are leading the AFC North by two games and have a relatively easy schedule down the stretch (aside from Minnesota and San Diego). Carson Palmer has rebounded nicely from an elbow injury that kept him out for the majority of 2008; Cedric Benson is having a career year, and Ochocinco took off his diaper, which has translated into an all-pro year. The Cincinnati defense has been outstanding as well. They lead the league in points allowed (15.8 PPG), 3rd in rush defense (81.9 YPG), sixth in passing yards allowed (197.3). It’d be hard for anyone to pick this team to go to the Superbowl, but would you be surprised after the season they’ve had?
5. Dallas Cowboys (8-3): The ‘boys have won six out of their last seven and are currently leading the NFC East. The offense is prolific once again this year averaging 138 yards on the ground and 254 through the air. The pass defense has been shaky while ranked 21st in pass defense (224 YPG), but the rush defense led by their impressive linebackers has been stout all year and should continue. December has been a disappointing month for Dallas especially since Tony Romo has been the starter (5-10). Dallas’ remaining schedule will be a difficult one as their remaining opponents sport a combined record of 35-19.
6. New England Patriots (7-4): After a whitewash courtesy of the New Orleans Saints, the Patriots are down, but far from out. The offense is as fluent as ever ranking in the top 5 in every major statistical category aside from the running game, which is 17th in the NFL (114.5). The retooled defense has been mediocre, but people tend to look past it because of the Patriots aura. But how can you ignore this glaring weakness after being completely exposed by the offensive juggernauts in the league (i.e. Colts, Saints). That has to be a major concern for the coaching staff with the postseason around the corner. If you watched the New Orleans game, you know as well as I do that this team has many question marks on defense. With the defense as it is, let me ask you this: would you bet your money against Belichick’s mind and Brady’s arm in the postseason? Yeah, neither would I.
7. San Diego Chargers (8-3): After a disappointing start to the season where they started 2-3, the Bolts have won six straight games and look poised to claim another AFC West crown. Philip Rivers has been solid once again this year and Vincent Jackson is much improved from a year ago. San Diego ranks in the top 10 in pass defense, but the Achilles Heel for the defense has been stopping the run (115.7 YPG). The ability to sustain a consistent defensive effort in the postseason has been problematic for San Diego in recent years. This team looks ready to break through in 2009, but the road to the Super bowl will run through Indianapolis.
8. Green Bay Packers (7-4): After an embarrassing loss to the hapless Buccaneers and a 4-4 start to the season, the Packers were thought to be an average football team with another year or two to go before making an impact in the NFC. Well the Pack have reeled off three straight wins, what are the critics saying now? Green Bay is for real. The success starts with the much-maligned defense led by Charles Woodson and Nick Barnett; they are now ranked 1st in the NFL in total defense. During that rocky start, the offensive line was giving D-lineman a free pass to throttle Aaron Rodgers. Recently, the line has stepped up to a respectable level and performed well for the 24th pick in the 2005 draft. If Rodgers can stay upright, then he’ll be able to deliver the ball to the host of wide receivers that he has at his disposal. Ryan Grant has been valuable rushing for 890 yards thus far in the season while being a reliable outlet for Rodgers. If the offensive line can continue to protect Rodgers and the defense can stay tough, the Packers will be in the playoffs and could make some noise.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4): The Eagles are an interesting squad: one week, they look fantastic as the defense is swarming the football and McNabb is throwing darts all over the field. Other times, they look lost while simply going through the motions. The past two games, the Eagles have been put to the test; by whom you ask? The Redskins and Bears! What? They’ve won both games, but those are examples of pushover teams that should be tied to railroad tracks and run over on the spot. If Philadelphia wants to be considered contenders, then they need to start playing as such. In order for the Eagles to make the postseason, they must temper a schedule full of capable teams that are ready to take their playoff spot in the NFC. These teams include NYG, 49ers, and the Falcons. This team has the talent, but if they don’t have the heart and passion to take it to the next level, then their talent doesn’t matter. I expect a postseason berth, but their remaining schedule demands that they earn it.
10. Arizona Cardinals (7-4): The Cards have it all on offense, a great quarterback, albeit fragile and nearing 40; a solid running game with power and diversity; and electric wide receivers. The offense is top 10 in three major offensive categories: points (24.3) pass yards (265.4) and total yards (357.5). That being said, I have one question. What good is the offense when the defense can’t stop anybody? They are 29th in the league in pass defense (258.3) and 24th in total yards (366.9). On top of that, Kurt Warner is suffering from eye issues stemming from the concussion he suffered Week 12 against St. Louis. Warner will be healthy far before the playoffs begin, but the defense is definitely a concern. Playing in the NFC West, it’s hard to consider this team a legitimate contender with the fluff teams that oppose them in the division; but, I will not question the resolve that this team brings to the table after last year’s amazing playoff run that landed them a Ben Roethlisberger game winning touchdown drive away from their first title in franchise history.
11. Denver Broncos (7-4): Denver’s offseason turmoil was the worst I had ever seen; Jay Cutler was traded to Chicago in a messy divorce. In training camp, Brandon Marshall was having temper-tantrums similar to my six year brother after having his Tonka truck taken away, it was pathetic. Nobody expected the Broncos to attain the type of success that they did to start the season, and even now, they are a respectable three games over .500, which is still a shocker to many. Kyle Orton has been the primary example of a quarterback who has created absolutely no identity for himself. After the first six games, Kyle Orton was very efficient throwing for nine touchdowns and one interception. After the bye week, he didn’t throw a touchdown in three out of Denver’s four losses. The defense has been quite a revelation this year ranking 5th in three out of four major statistical categories; points allowed (17.5), total yards allowed (295.5), passing yards allowed (185). The defense has given up 110 yards per game on the ground, which is a slight concern, but it’s a problem that can be supplemented as the rest of the defense plays consistent lights-out football. The success of this team comes back to Orton. If he can manage the game and not commit costly turnovers, then this team could make a run in the playoffs.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5): Coming off a title last season, the Steelers appear to have the Superbowl hangover. The defense has been solid (1st in rush D, 3rd in total D), but without Troy Polamalu patrolling the middle of the field, it’s going to be tough to get anywhere in the playoffs. Typically, others can supplement losing a player on defense, but Polamalu is extremely pivotal rushing the passer on blitzes and being able to run with the best of receivers. Big Ben seems to be healthy stemming from a concussion he suffered two weeks ago, and should be a go in Week 13. The rushing attack has been doing fine with Rashard Mendenhall even after Willie Parker decided to take a sabbatical in 2009. Overall, the Steelers are similar to the Patriots in the sense that if you bet against them, the chances are that they will win. The expectation for the Steelers is that they will make the playoffs and don’t be surprised if they end up in the AFC Championship game with the playoff aptitude that has brought them two Superbowl championships in the past four years.
13. Tennessee Titans (5-6): Vince Young has grown up from an insecure kid who faded out of the league for a period of time to a grown man who has developed into a pure pocket passer. In his first couple of years, his first instinct was to run; now, he goes through his progressions and seems to be very decisive. While Young has been great while leading the team to five straight wins, it helps having the best running back in the league to take the pressure off. Chris Johnson has been incredible in 2009; currently, he has a six game streak with 125+ yards, which ties Eric Dickerson and Earl Campbell (both hall-of-famers) for most all-time. While running full speed, most running backs are sloppy with their footwork and can’t make distinct cuts; Johnson is different, he has that ability and makes established linebackers look like rookies. The Titans have won five straight games while the defense has been a big liability all year. They have given up 26.3 PPG (29th in NFL), 368.2 total yards (25th in NFL), and 266.7 pass yards (31st in NFL). The team travels to Indianapolis this week to try to end the Colts pursuit of a perfect season. If any team can do it now, it’d be Tennessee; it is my assertion that they will go into Lucas Oil Stadium and come out with a victory. A playoff berth can be achieved, but Tennessee would have to run the table. While still a backup to Kerry Collins, Vince Young said that he would be the first black quarterback to win the Superbowl; sounds delusional right? It would take a miracle for a team that started 0-6 to go to the playoffs, run the table, and win the Superbowl; but miracles can happen, just ask the 1972 U.S. Hockey team.
14. Baltimore Ravens (6-5): Ever since a 3-0 start, Baltimore was thought to be a legitimate Superbowl contender this year; they have basically alternated wins and losses since. After a hot start, Flacco has faltered radically after the bye week (7) throwing only two touchdown passes in the past five weeks. Led by Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata, the defense has kept the Ravens pertinent while ranking in the top six in the league in two major statistical categories. They have only allowed 17.5 PPG (4th in NFL) and sixth in rush yards allowed per game (97.5, 6th in NFL). The outstanding play of “Mr. Everything” Ray Rice has elevated this team and given them hope. He is a dual threat rushing and receiving; he also has a chance of going over 2,000 yards so needless to say, Joe Flacco is fortunate to have Rice as his “safety blanket.” Only two teams Baltimore plays for the remainder of the year are over .500 (GB and Pittsburgh). If Baltimore can win one of those games and dominate the other basement dwellers that are remaining on the schedule (Det, Oak, Chi, combined record 9-24) then a playoff berth will be waiting on the other side.
15. New York Giants (6-5): This team has been a mystery all year. The Giants started out with five straight wins, and then lost five out of six. Overall, the defense has played relatively solid all year, but has been exposed on a few occasions. The Giants defensive leader Antonio Pierce has been put on IR for the rest of the season with a bulging disk in his neck. The defense is ranked 4th in total yards (290.5), 4th in passing yards allowed (182.6) and 11th in rushing yards allowed (107.8). Offensively, the Giants have a lot of talent, but the production hasn’t been there. In 2008, the G-men had one of the best running games in the league, but the loss of Derrick Ward, injuries and inconsistency have limited the formerly outstanding rushing attack. Eli Manning has played well, but a nagging foot injury has limited his ability to move within the pocket. The emergence of Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks was a huge boost at the beginning of the year after the loss of both Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer after the 2008 season, but again, inconsistency by the receiving corps in the latter portion of this season has been a huge disappointment for the team. If the Giants want to make it to the postseason, the defense must revert back to their 2007 form of getting after the quarterback and creating turnovers because the constant contradictory play by the offense on a weekly basis has dragged this team into a state of mediocrity.
16. Atlanta Falcons (6-5): Let me get this out there, if Michael Turner is unhealthy for the remainder of the season, the Falcons will not make the playoffs. Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling will not be able to relieve the pressure that various defenses will bring to the quarterback each week. Speaking of quarterbacks, Matt Ryan is out Week 13 with what is being diagnosed as Turf Toe. Chris Redman will take his place and while he has been a lifetime backup, he should be able to come in and be productive until Ryan returns to the lineup. The offense as been slightly above average this season, but the defense has been destroyed all season and it doesn’t look like that will change. They rank in the bottom-third in every major statistical defense category with the exception of points allowed per game (22.3, 19th in NFL). For the Falcons to have a chance to make the playoffs, Turner must return, but a high-ankle sprain needs to be handled on a week-to-week basis as it can linger. The same goes for Ryan, turf toe is an injury that can linger for up to six weeks or maybe more. These injuries and a terrible defense will probably remove the Falcons out of the playoff picture this season.
17. San Francisco 49ers (5-6): The 49ers are another one of those mystery teams; they have immense talent on the offensive side of the ball, and defensively, they are led by a great linebacker in Patrick Willis, but need to make changes to their front-4 in the offseason. San Francisco got off to such a great start to the season, but changes at the quarterback position and various ailments to Frank Gore may have left this team on the playoff bubble in 2009. If they do not make the playoffs this season, then their future certainly looks bright with future star receiver Michael Crabtree on the outside, and a new-and-improved Vernon Davis as perhaps the best tight end in football. Alex Smith still has some work to do, but could be a very productive quarterback. Three out of the next five opponents for San Francisco have four wins or less, so there’s an outside chance that they will make the playoffs. But don’t count on it, as the 49ers have been season-long underachievers and will drop a game against one of the doormats in the NFC.
Bryan Fontaine
Brandon LaClair
Scott Schnorrbusch
Andy Miley
