Fantasy Football Roundtable #3 – Top Running Backs

In the third edition of our Fantasy Football Roundtable discussion (Previous discussions can be found here and here) we now turn our attention to the top running backs this season.  Running back is the most important position in Fantasy Football for good reason; they have the most opportunity with the football in their hands.  It is tougher to find much success if you miss on your first round selection, so our panel of experts have offered their opinions for the following topic:  “Who are your Top 5 Running Backs (Non-PPR) in 2009, and why?”

Continue reading at the end for a consensus ranking from this panel of experts (5 points for 1^st, 1 point for 5^th).

Bryan Fontaine, RookieBlitz.com

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota: Peterson should be the first overall selection in any format.  With Brett Favre now on board, Peterson could topple 2,000 yards rushing on his way to his first league MVP award.  Just look at the impact Favre had on Thomas Jones last season as defenses honored the deep ball.  Don’t get cute in a PPR league and take MJD first overall, we are watching a future Hall of Famer entering the prime of his career.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville: Jones-Drew is a very close second to Peterson in my rankings.  In a part-time role MJD has proven that he has a nose for the end zone and he’ll finally be the focal point of the Jaguars offense.  The size concerns will never elude him, but the determination he has to be great will more than make up for it.  Don’t discount the chip on his shoulder on being snubbed from the first round of the 2006 NFL draft, his jersey number is 32 for a reason.

3. Steven Jackson – St. Louis: Jones-Drew gets the nod over Jackson because he plays on a better team with a competent quarterback.  Jackson is easily the second most talented back in the league behind Peterson, but plays on one of the worst offenses.  Even on a rebuilding team, Jackson’s floor is better than any of the other remaining running backs available.  It is not a huge gamble to rank Jackson this high, just queue up some 2006 game tape of his top 3 finish.

4. Matt Forte – Chicago: I am admittedly a year late on the Forte bandwagon.  I thought he was overused at Tulane and didn’t have the speed to turn the corner in the NFL.  Forte proved to be everything Cedric Benson should have been in 2008.  Cutler won’t check down as much as Kyle Orton did, but I can see an increase in his goal line opportunities with an improved Bears offense.  Forte is the safe play but does not have the upside of some of the other running backs available.

5. LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego: I want to believe this is the year the wheels fall off for LT, but all the signs are pointing to a big season in 2009.  Philip Rivers developed into a franchise QB last year, and this offense will score in droves again.  You are not drafting the LT of old, but one that will total at least 1500 total yards and 10 touchdowns.  Darren Sproles will help keep LT fresh throughout the season to prevent any nagging injuries.  If you listen to LT speak, he realizes his legacy is on the line as a Hall of Famer and wants to go out on top and not become an afterthought.  You won’t have to draft LT this high in your drafts, and you’ll reap the benefits as your RB1.

Matt Schauf, RapidDraft.com

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota — The potential here is just too great for me to go in another direction with the top non-PPR pick. Peterson’s only real fantasy shortcomings so far have been a lack of receptions and a mere 10 touchdowns in his one full season as a starter. The former doesn’t matter nearly as much in this format. The latter should improve with a bigger threat (and better player) at quarterback.

2. Matt Forte, Chicago — He’ll remain the focal point in an offense that will move the ball better now that it has a franchise quarterback. We saw as much when Forte scored both Bears touchdowns in the first half on Sunday night at Denver. With little else around him and a poor line in his rookie season, Forte put together 1,715 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. Even if the team spells him a little more this year, Forte should get more shots in the red zone thanks to a stronger pass offense.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville – The fact that we’ve never seen him carry as many as 200 times in a season in college or the pros doesn’t scare me enough to drop MJD far, but it’s just enough to slot him behind two workhorses who have proven they can handle the load. Jones-Drew’s touchdown numbers have been awesome, and I won’t be surprised if he finishes the year No. 1.

4. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego — If a “down” year with a bad toe is 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns, then I’m still willing to give the guy benefit of the doubt. All reports on him have been very good, which only leaves me wondering if I’m underrating Tomlinson.

5. Michael Turner, Atlanta — I think it’s a virtual certainty that Turner’s numbers drop from last season because of a tougher schedule, fewer carries and an offense that will trust it’s passing game for more scoring this year. (The difference between his situation and those of Forte and Peterson is that the Falcons already ranked top 10 in yardage last year, whereas Chicago and Minnesota sat among the league’s bottom half.) Of course, an offense that sure seems to be on the rise should give Turner plenty of chances to hit double-digit touchdowns once again.

Greg Dietz, BigTroph.com

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota: Obviously the guy has what it takes to be a fantasy stud in leagues across the country for years to come. There’s always a bit of a risk when investing in someone with the number one pick because the expectations are high. However, with Brett Favre in the mix, the Vikings passing attack will have to be taken seriously which should open up the box for Peterson who is used to going against eight or nine defenders. If he can lead the league in rushing with that many guys in his face, he can surely do it when defenses have to step back and defend the pass. Peterson could potentially eclipse the 2000 yard/20 TD mark this year and will surely lead many a fantasy owner to a championship.

2. Matt Forte – Chicago: Forte was shoved into the Chicago limelight in 2008 and shined greater than even the best analysts thought he would. He carried the ball over 300 times, caught 63 passes, and put up a total of over 1700 yards and 12 TDs and that was with Kyle Orton leading the team. In steps Jay Cutler and just like Favre’s cannon helping out Peterson’s game in Minnesota, Cutler’s arm will do the same for Forte in 2009. While some people are worried about how his body will respond after receiving all those touches, Forte stands a steady 6’2” and has a lot of speed to complement his bulky 222 pounds. If you liked what you saw in Forte in 2008, be prepared to see even more. I expect Forte to grab the most catches of any running back in the league and for him to finish with over 1900 total yards and close to 20 touchdowns.

3. DeAngelo Williams – Carolina: If we were ranking RBs for PPR leagues, Williams would not be this high on my list. And one of the big problems some people have had with taking Williams is that he splits time with Jonathan Stewart.  However, in 2008 Williams put on a freak show when he surprisingly finished third in rushing, led the league in touchdowns, and get this, did not fumble the ball once. With Jonathan Stewart battling a tough injury, he has been handed nearly 100% of the first-team carries and his numbers will stay around the same in 2009 with around 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns making him an easy and safe pick in the first round.

4. Steven Jackson – St. Louis: The Rams are finally starting to see a light at the end of this rebuilding tunnel that they are in and Steven Jackson is going to be the key beneficiary of it. Jackson has been through thick and thin with the team and has always performed at a high level. Durability is a concern with him seeing as he has only played in a full season once in his five year career, but he always averages four yards or more per carry and can also be counted on for close to 40 catches per season. Jackson has also suffered from a lack of continuity on the offensive line. With a healthy front-five and a more polished passing attack led by Donnie Avery, I expect Jackson to return to Pro Bowl form and rush for 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville: Jones-Drew is the sleek pick of many pundits and fantasy owners alike who feel confident in investing the first overall pick in him. However, I’m not as sold on the idea. People seem to forget that while MJD was a viable threat for the Jaguars the past three years, he was playing behind Fred Taylor all of those years and his yards per catch and yards per carry were both career lows in 2008. Also, the man has never carried the ball more than 200 times in a season. While the low center of gravity on his 5’7” 208 pound frame helps him to dodge defenders, it also means that he could be taking the biggest beating of his life in 2009 when he becomes the focus of a defensive coordinator’s eye. MJD clearly has huge upside, but I’m not positive that he will be able to stay healthy for the full season and would not invest anything higher than the number four overall pick on him. I see him rushing for just under 1000 yards and putting up about nine touchdowns in what will be a disappointing season.

Dalton Del Don, RotoScoop.com

1. Adrian Peterson – No-brainer.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew – Closer to No. 1 than No. 3 on my board.

3. Matt Forte – I wouldn’t feel great with the No. 3 pick this year and would strongly consider Calvin Johnson at this spot instead of a back. Forte does it all, and the additions of Jay Cutler and Orlando Pace should help, but Kevin Jones will be more involved this season, and Chicago’s playoff schedule (GB, @Balt, MIN) is pretty brutal.

4. Steve Slaton – I like him more than most, but admittedly, his durability is a risk, and you will have a harder time making a profit taking him this high, obviously. It’s pretty likely Slaton loses some goal-line work this season, but he totaled 916 yards over the final seven games last year- a 2,094-yard pace over a full year. While it was nice he got the second-most goal-line carries in the NFL last season (18), only four of his touchdowns came from there, and Slaton led the league in 40-plus yard rushes, so his TD total won’t take a huge dive regardless. The Texans should have one of the best offenses=2 0in football and get to face the NFC West this year, so Slaton is in a nice situation to put up big numbers.

5. Chris Johnson – DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook all deserve consideration here, which is why a later first round pick is best. Turner doesn’t catch any passes, and he relied way too heavily on carving up bottom-five defenses last season. Johnson is a special talent, and he was actually better when the Titans were trailing last year (and the team was forced to play its best personnel), so the expected regression by Tennessee’s defense could actually be a good thing for Johnson’s value.

Chet Gresham, Razzball.com

1. Adrian Peterson — Purple Jesus is a miracle on the football field waiting to happen.  I just cannot see anyone else going #1 this year, at least in a non ppr league.  The only thing that was really holding him back was his QB.  Teams didn’t have to consistently worry about TJax or Frerotte beating them.  That was the game plan, don’t let Peterson beat us.  When Rosenfels went to Minnesota I felt that was a big enough upgrade to help AP, but now with Favre I believe it is yet another step up and defenses will have to defend Favre, at least until his arm falls off.

2. MJD — He will beat you every which way but loose and even then I think he could get a first down.  There is talk that he might not be able to hold up as the primary back, but the man is a bowling ball with pads on.  He has incredible upside with a possible 2,000 total yards.  You don’t pass that up.

3. Michael Turner — Tougher schedule, curse of 370, name rhymes with Ike Turner, everything is stacked against him, but I believe his lack of use early in his career as LT’s backup, the addition of Tony Gonzalez, a great offensive line, and a slight decrease in use should help keep him fresh and near the top yet again this year.

4. Matt Forte — Jay Cutler.  That’s all you really have to say because unlike Orton, Cutler is  able to spread the defense which will make Forte even better than he was last year and that was pretty darn good.  I do worry a little about Cutler not liking to check down to backs, but that was when he had Marshall and Royal to throw to.  He will throw to Forte because he wants and needs to win.

5. Steven Jackson — This one was tough.  I would be happy with a lot of backs in the 5 slot, but I think SJax has the highest ceiling of them all.  His injury history and poor team are strikes against him, but he finished the season strong last year, will be on the field every down, catches a ton of balls, has a lot of power, and is just the only thing happening in St. Louis.  That means the D’s will focus on him of course and that coupled with the lack of offensive help will keep his numbers down, but if he stays healthy he will have too many touches against a weak NFC West schedule to not put up top 5 numbers.

Jason Sarney, FantasyPhenoms.com

1. Adrian Peterson MIN- In a Non-PPR league, it’s all about TD potential in terms of what I look for first and foremost out of my RBs. That being said, my No. 1 RB in a Non-PPR league is Adrian Peterson.  It’s scary to think that AP has merely scratched the surface of his potential, and this year is a sure bet (barring health) that he puts up career high TD totals in his third season. A safe number is 15 to expect from the Viking back, but I won’t be surprised at all to see a number closer to 20.

2. Maurice Jones-Drew JAC- My second RB, based on the amount of TDs I believe he will score, is Maurice Jones-Drew. Even in a Non-PPR, I can’t even think about moving him down because he is now the guy in that Jacksonville offense.  He could easily net 1500+ yards and challenge AP for the league’s TD crown. I am not particularly worried about the amount of mileage he is about to put his body through…at least not until next season.

3. Matt Forte CHI- At the number three slot, is Matt Forte. As just mentioned with MJD, last year’s workload could possibly affect Forte this season, yet the acquisition of QB Jay Cutler could negate that stigma for Forte. Look for more passing in Chi-Town, and that doesn’t mean look for another 60+ reception year from Forte, so his overall yardage stats may dip here. However, with that offense led by Cutler, along with a defense and return game that will create plenty of short-field situations for the ground attack. I like Forte to improve his TD number (8 rush 4 reception TD in ’08) in 2009.  Look for a total of 14, with 12 coming on the ground and two courtesy of Cutler.

4. Michael Turner ATL- The fourth slot is where it gets a tad tricky. I am going to be quasi-safe here, and go with last year’s round-for-round steal of the draft, Michael Turner. I will say with 100% confidence that he will not post overall stats better than he did in 2008, but he could come fairly close. Turner owners and followers should not expect 17 TDs, now that Matt Ryan has a new friend in Tony Gonzalez for some of those Red Zone opportunities, as well as the fact that Turner carried the ball a whopping 376 times last season. I don’t think there is a need to worry with Turner at No. 4, but don’t expect No. 1 stats from him this year.

5. LaDainian Tomlinson SD- Rounding out my Top-5 is LaDainian Tomlinson. Now I know this can be construed as a “Leap of Faith” pick here, but this is a guy who had an off year last year with 1,536 and 12 TDs…an off year. The potential is too great here to pass up on LT for a guy who has yet to consistently prove himself (DeAngelo Williams) or a major injury risk on a lousy team (Steven Jackson).  When drafting LT, please target Darren Sproles a round or two early (6 or 7 is fine) and protect your investment. Target some of those rookie runners late as well, and the risk/reward will be tremendous in your favor.

Consensus ranking by the numbers:

1.Adrian Peterson (30 points)
2.Maurice Jones-Drew (20 points)
3. Matt Forte (18 points)
T4. Steven Jackson (6 points)
T4. Michael Turner (6 points)

Others

LaDanian Tomlinson (4 points)
DeAngelo Williams (3 points)
Steve Slaton (2 points)
Chris Johnson (1 point)

Related posts:

1. Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable: Playoff Edition – Week 14
2. Running Down the Fantasy Football Playoffs
3. Running Backs – 2009 Season Preview