Toby Gerhart: NFL Draft Profile

We’ll take a look at Stanford running back Toby Gerhart as he enters the 2010 NFL Draft.  We’ll examine his strengths/weaknesses, college career and our expectations for his upcoming NFL career.

Strengths
•       Physicality: Gerhart is 237 pounds and his power rushing style bullies smaller defenders into submission
•       Speed: Surprising speed (4.55 forty-yard dash) for a bruiser such as Gerhart, yet to be successful at the next level, he must be able to beat the defender to the corner in the league and with his bulk, that may be an issue
•       Balance: Gerhart has an upright rushing style, which would make you think he’d be susceptible to tackles that are low, but that couldn’t be further from the truth.  He runs straight through defenders trying for the low tackle, which speaks to his exceptional balance

Weaknesses
•       Receiving: He has respectable receiving skills with 39 receptions in his career at Stanford.  In the pro game, his proficiency as a receiver will have to improve because he will be consistently fighting for playing time
•       Agility: Gerhart doesn’t possess the athleticism to fake out a defender. He relies on his one cut rushing style that simply targets a defender and attempts to run in him down.  While that may be an effective style in college, that may not be a worthwhile strategy in the league.  That technique will be effective against a smaller player, but can you imagine Gerhart taking on Ray Lewis in the trenches?
•       Blocking: Limited technique as a blocker and tends to throw his body into defenders, which will get his quarterback into trouble quickly in the NFL.

(All statistical information obtained from ESPN.com and cdsdraft.com)

Toby Gerhart’s college career had its positives and negatives.  His 2007 season was cut short do to a Posterior Cruciate Ligament (PCL) injury that ended his season after 12 carries.  He came back in his junior year with something to prove.
During his breakout ’08 season, Gerhart ran for 100+ yards eight times including four straight games mid-season.  He finally was able to display his aggressive, hard running style that put opposing defensive backs on notice.  His great junior year produced a solid 1,136 yards on 210 carries.

Expectations became increasingly high for Gerhart coming into his senior season after an outstanding junior year.

In Gerhart’s final season at Stanford, he went from a very good player to a player that ingrained thoughts of greatness into the minds of every fan that was granted to privilege to watch him perform.  He proved to the world that nothing would stop him from achieving greatness while taking the pounding of a strenuous college football season where he ran for 1,836 yards on 346 carries and 27 touchdowns.

Gerhart eclipsed 200 yards three times in ’09 while only rushing under 100 yards twice.  It was an absolutely outstanding season for a player that had to have everlasting redemption on his mind after being hurt in ’07.

Gerhart is a workhorse, a player that has persevered through great odds to be where he’s at right now.  He has great intangibles and strength, but lacks route running skills and while he is fast for his size, he lacks a second gear and will struggle to round the corner in the league.

He is predicted to go in the second round and that draft stock suits him well.  He doesn’t have a true position, which will make him expendable at the next level.  He is not quick enough to be a true #1, but is too small to play the fullback position.

I expect that Gerhart’s will be out of the league within three years.  There are far too many question marks in his game and while he was a star at Stanford, it’s highly unlikely that success such as that will transfer over to the league.  Unless a player is a special talent that can play a multitude of positions, then a successful career is suspicious at best.  Gerhart may prove the cynics wrong and go on to have a great NFL career, but my stance is emphatic, he doesn’t have a chance.