The Strategy & Planning of your Rookie Draft
Posted on 27. Jun, 2010 by Andy Miley in Columns, Draft Strategy
Draft time is always exciting, and maybe even more so in a dynasty league.
Should you choose the more talented player or the one with the best opportunity? Do you draft the position that you need or do you go with the most talented player? You build a dynasty team for years, not a season at a time, like those re-drafts. With these rookie drafts, you must have a plan and direction to where you want your team to go. Let’s first take a look at a plan to set in motion.
Every good draft starts with a plan.
Planning for your rookie draft should begin the previous September. Are you crazy Andy, come on, who has time for that?
A successful owner will start watching Sportscenter college football highlights in September. I know college games start in August, but we have way too many preseason games to worry about then. Watch an occasional college game or two. Yes, there are great sites that help you process the rookie info such as rookieblitz.com and rookiedraft.com. However , you need to get an eye for players. Does he have that “zu-zu” (special ability) as NFL Matchup producer Greg Cossell likes to say?
You aren’t going to develop this “eye” by just reading; watching college players and taking notes helps.
Highlights on youtube.com will not give you a good sense of the player’s ability . If you took 2 minutes of my great high school plays, you might think I was an all-star.; hours of tape that would prove that my skills were not high-caliber. You can watch all the players carries or catches in a game to get a much better idea of their skill level.
Bowl season is the best time to sit down and watch the seniors and the other potential NFL draftees.
Take simple notes i.e.: Harvey Unga looks like a heavy footed Michael Bush, Garrett Graham looks like a poor man’s Owen Daniels, etc. Watch the combine to get a better sense of the rookie’s ability and Rich Eisen’s 40 yard dash, (you will feel better about yourself). Your own impressions will help you determine how to tier the rookies along with one or two good expert’s advice.
Rank the rookies before the NFL Draft. This will help you down the road to distinguish talent versus opportunity. After the NFL Draft, tier the rookies again. Your “eye” is now getting sharper.
Now that you have taken notes, let’s breakdown some draft strategy.
Know your enemy (league mates). Who is their favorite college team, favorite pro team, team needs, and how have they drafted before. Some owners will never select a rookie TE in the first round or possibly none at all. Another owner may have such a hole at QB that they will burn a top 5 pick on a QB (I would not ever suggest a team do that unless it was a start 2 QB league). I love Lamar Woodley; why, you ask? I am a huge Pittsburgh Steelers fan as well as a Michigan fan (don’t leave just yet).
These can be effective signs of where someone is going with their rookie selections. Do your own mock rookie draft of your league. Look at all the rosters and try to predict what the other owners are drafting. Is the player you want going to get to you? Don’t bother mocking past round one and make sure to include available free agents in your mocks as guys like Charlie Whitehurst and Devin Aromashodu could be available. Search the web for other rookie drafts. This will give you a better idea about how these rookies are being viewed.
So who wins in the raging debate talent versus opportunity?
Talent tends to last longer than opportunity. Ask a Darren McFadden owner or a Ray Rice owner which one is better. In 2008, McFadden was a superstar who had the Oakland Raiders job locked up and Ray Rice was just a guy from Rutgers that had barely beat out Brain Leonard in college. Now, Ray Rice is considered a top 5 RB and McFadden is maybe top 30.
Situations can change in a New York minute; coaches are fired all the time. System guys are replaced every year. Go with the talent as it is always a constant.
The Baltimore Ravens have been very successful by always selecting the best available player over team need. This should be your approach as well.
You can never have too many good RBs or WRs. If everyone is gone on your 1st RB tier, then take a 1st tier WR. Rookie QBs are seldom productive year one and seem to take the most time to be productive. After the top 2 TEs, they are very much hit or miss.
Don’t be afraid to go all Jimmy Johnson (not #48) and trade up or down depending on what you need. Trading around in rookie drafts can stress out some owners, so why not add to their stress level.
Give the rookies the “eye” test. Don’t go to youtube.com for the eye test. Make your own notes. Read up on them here. Try to figure out your league mates. Mock draft the first round. Check out other drafts. Choose talent over opportunity and need. Trade around if you need to get the player you need. Rinse and repeat.
Good luck.
Related posts:
Subscription Options:
Trackbacks/Pingbacks
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Andy Miley, Bryan Fontaine. Bryan Fontaine said: The Strategy & Planning of your Rookie Draft – http://rookieblitz.com/?p=3311 [...]