Fantasy Football Stock Market – Preseason Edition 2: QB

In the return of our weekly Fantasy Football Stock Market article, we will be highlighting players that you should buy (undervalued) and sell (overvalued).  We will also provide information on Penny Stock players – players outside the top 250 in ADP or on waivers in the deepest of fantasy leagues that could pay off huge dividends at little or no cost to your fantasy team.  We will be focusing on one position per week, with quarterbacks are up next.

Buy

David Garrard – Jacksonville Jaguars

David Garrrard is one of the least appreciated QBs in the league by his coaching staff and the Jacksonville fans.  Garrard, a 2009 Pro Bowl alternate, is better than his perceived value.  With two rookie tackles, Garrard was again one of the best running QBs (led league with 35 designed runs, 4.2 yards/carry and 3 TD) and was fifth in the league with 592 drop backs to pass.

The Jaguars’ passing attack will improve in 2010.  Mike Sims-Walker, Jarett Dillard and Mike Thomas will have another year under their belts and the Jaguars will need to pass often with a shaky defense to keep up in the AFC South.  Do not buy into the competition with Luke McCown, this is Garrard’s team.  Garrard will be a top fantasy backup this year and he will come at a fraction of the cost at his current ADP.

Matt Cassel – Kansas City Chiefs

There is reason for optimism for Kansas City, even after Matt Cassel struggled in his first season with the team.  Cassel regressed in nearly every major category and fell from being the 8^th ranked fantasy QB in 2008 to 21^st in 2009.  Cassel works better underneath and with intermediate throws and may never be a downfield threat.  Cassel was 2^nd in the league last year with 42 dropped passes by his receivers.

Cassel’s supporting cast in 2010 has improved with the additions of Thomas Jones, Jerheme Urban and the drafting of Dexter McCluster.  Charlie Weis was brought in to run the offense and retool the offense with more short and intermediate routes.  Weis is a QB guru; he made Brady Quinn into a first round pick while at Notre Dame and helped develop Tom Brady into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  The Chiefs have one of the easiest schedules this season, and Cassel presents high upside at his current ADP.

Sell

Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer struggled last season as the season wore on and it became clear that it was because of his arm issues.  He did not have the same arm strength he showed earlier in his career.  Palmer opted to rehab in the offseason and claims his arm is healthier than ever.

Palmer is being drafted as a top-15 QB, and he will have a tough time cracking the top 20.  In fact, Palmer may be headed for a career decline at age 30.  Palmer threw 50% of his throws underneath or short pass attempts, and his 6.7 yards per attempt ranked 19^th in the league.  Palmer was erratic with his throws, completing only 60.5% of his passes despite not going downfield much.  Despite drafting Jermaine Gresham and adding Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant in free agency, Palmer will struggle to live up to his ADP of QB15.

Chad Henne – Miami Dolphins

Chad Henne enters his third season in the NFL as a potential breakout candidate with Brandon Marshall now in town.  After looking further at the numbers, Henne will not take a giant leap forward in his development with the addition of Marshall and subtraction of Ted Ginn Jr.  The Dolphins let Henne throw over 40 pass attempts per game late in the season, but he only finished 23^rd in pass completion percentage (60.8) and 24^th in passing yards per attempt (6.4) in the league.

Henne will be a solid NFL quarterback; however, he will struggle as a fantasy option with poor decision-making and consistency because of a lack of a deep threat.  Marshall is a yards after catch monster and lethal on third downs, but he can’t stretch the field and the remainder of the Dolphins’ receivers are possession types.  Henne lacks the upside to out produce his current ADP.

Penny Stocks

Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos

Kyle Orton has to see the writing on the wall with the off-season acquisitions of Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow.  His long-term tenure as the Broncos’ starting QB is shaky at best.  Orton did prove to be an above average starter in his first season in Denver.  He ranked 17^th in the NFL with 7.0 yards per attempt and 14^th in completion percentage (62.1%).

Orton still has plenty of weapons in Denver despite the departure of Brandon Marshall to Miami.  Rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will look to fill the void left by Marshall.  Orton will reap the benefits of an easy schedule that includes matchups against Seattle, St. Louis and Jacksonville.  Orton could easily outperform his current ADP and keep the starting job all season.

Trent Edwards – Buffalo Bills

New head coach Chan Gailey has not named his starting quarterback yet, but all signs point to Trent Edwards earning the nod.  Buffalo’s offense isn’t elite by any measure and they lack the playmakers to strike fear into opposing defensive coordinators.

Edwards is worth a late flier at the end of your roster or taxi squad based on Gailey’s track record with unheralded QBs.  Gailey has turned Kordell Stewart (#2, 1997), Jay Fiedler (#10, 2001) and Tyler Thigpen (#12, 2008) into fantasy starters.  If Edwards can trust his offensive line enough to go downfield with the football, he can be a viable backup option in deeper leagues.

All statistics courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com