The Rookie Blitz – Week 6 in Review

The Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the fantasy football impact of each NFL Draft class.

Quarterback

Sam Bradford continues to improve every week and has the Rams thinking playoffs for the first time since the greatest show on turf days. As I have analyzed in prior articles, Bradford has favored the right side of the football field with his passing attempts until this past week. For the first time all season, 25.8% of Bradford’s attempts went to the left side of the football field and only 22.6% to the right. Displaying veteran-like ability to take what the defense was giving to him, Bradford targeted 9 different receivers and no one player had more than 5 targets (Alexander and Amendola, 5).  Look for Bradford to continue to utilize all of his weapons and solidify himself as a top-end backup QB for your fantasy team.

Colt McCoy started his NFL career in the most hostile of environments on the road at Heinz Field against the Pittsburgh Steelers. McCoy surprised many, including myself, with his debut performance. While many of his passing yards came in the comeback effort, McCoy put up a QB1 fantasy day with his 283 passing yards and touchdown pass to Ben Watson. What McCoy lacks in physical attributes, he makes up for with his winning attitude and mental toughness. McCoy performed better when pressured, despite 5 sacks, with a 75.0% completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt, and a 137.0 QB Rating. Don’t go run and pick up McCoy off the waiver wire; he isn’t even assured of starting when Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace return from injury.

Name Team Snaps Drop backs Runs Att. Comp Comp % TA Yds Yds / Att. TD In Sk DP NFL Rating
Colt McCoy CLV 57 42 4 33 23 69.7 1 283 8.6 1 2 5 2 80.7

The Panthers have decided that Matt Moore (-7.3, 116 snaps) will give them a better shot at winning than Jimmy Clausen (-6.2, 193 snaps). Clausen currently ranks at the bottom of nearly every major passing category and there are few positives to take away from his performances to date. This is probably not the last time we will Clausen this year; but it is now safe to drop him in all redraft leagues.

Name Team Snaps Drop backs Runs Att. Comp Comp % Yds Yds / Att. TD In Sk DP NFL Rating
Jimmy Clausen CAR 193 105 5 92 43 46.7 454 4.9 1 3 9 6 51.6

Tim Tebow finally saw his first action since Week 1 with 9 snaps against the Jets including his first rushing touchdown. However, he has yet to throw his first NFL pass. His 12 total snaps have resulted in 8 rushing attempts. Tebow should only be rostered in dynasty leagues at this point.

Max Hall gets his second career start this weekend against Seattle.

Running Back

The Saints employed a three-headed running back by committee against the Buccaneers, although it was Chris Ivory that had the big fantasy day (159 yards rushing). Ivory made the most of his 20 snaps (28.6%) with 16 touches (15 attempts, 1 reception). Ivory has touched the football 77.6% of the time he is in the game this season. It would be unwise to expect production like this every week because of Ivory’s low snap total and propensity to fumble (3).

Ryan Mathews makes an excellent buy-low candidate this week. His playing time has increased since returning from injury. He accounted for 70.6% of the team’s running attempts against St. Louis.

The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Jahvid Best. Since his 3 touchdown outburst in Week 2, Best has been a mediocre fantasy option because of his turf toe injury. Best is a good buy low candidate with top-10 PPR running back potential.

Keiland Williams has become the primary third-down back for Washington. He ran 24 pass patterns in his 34 snaps with only 2 rushing attempts against the Colts.

Name Team Snaps % Snaps Att. Yds Avg. Yco YCo/Att. LG TD MT TA Rec. Yds Yds/Rec. YAC YAC/Rec. TD
Chris Ivory NO 58 20.9 44 278 6.3 162 3.7 33 0 11 1 1 17 17 23 23 0
Ryan Mathews SD 112 32.4 54 279 5.2 125 2.3 20 1 7 10 8 56 7 75 9.4 0
Deji Karim JAX 37 27.4 18 73 4.1 50 2.8 15 0 2 4 2 9 4.5 4 2 0
Jahvid Best DET 283 65.4 80 261 3.3 132 1.7 33 4 6 38 31 285 9.2 259 8.4 1
C.J. Spiller BUF 96 34.7 19 80 4.2 54 2.8 19 0 3 13 13 48 3.7 110 8.5 1
Keiland Williams WAS 91 27.2 3 13 4.3 5 1.7 14 0 3 14 11 57 5.2 56 5.1 1

Wide Receiver

Danario Alexander made an impressive debut off the practice squad with 4 receptions for 72 yards and a TD, despite only playing 22 of 77 snaps. Alexander showed excellent chemistry with Bradford. The concerns about Alexander’s four knee surgeries keep his dynasty value in check, but for the short term, he can be a useful fantasy option if his playing time increases.

Demaryius Thomas leads all rookies in targets per snap. He is an imposing athlete that can get to top-end speed quickly. The Broncos continue to find ways to get him the football on simple passing routes. Thomas scored his second touchdown against Darrelle Revis of all people.

Dez Bryant caught his first NFL touchdown in his 22 snaps played against Minnesota. Bryant is still nursing a sore ankle and appears to be ready for more action this Monday against the Giants.

Damian Williams worked primarily from the slot in his 29 snaps against Jacksonville catching all 4 of his targets for 48 yards.

Mike A. Williams didn’t have a big fantasy day against New Orleans, but remains the one rookie wide receiver you can leave in your lineup each week. His 304 snaps played and 40 targets lead all rookies. Williams is the top target each game for QB Josh Freeman.

Dexter McCluster has at least one rushing attempt in every game this season, including a 20 yard run against Houston. The multi-purpose weapon started the game in the slot for Kansas City as they continue to move him around the formation to create mismatches.

Name Team Snaps TA % TA/SN* Rec. % Ct Yds Yds / Rec. YAC YAC / Rec. LG TD
Demaryius Thomas DEN 91 23 25.3 14 60.9 178 12.7 46 3.3 27 2
Danario Alexander SL 22 5 22.7 4 80 72 18.0 16 4.0 38 1
Dez Bryant DAL 171 29 17.0 18 62.1 211 11.7 53 2.9 31 1
David Nelson BUF 92 15 16.3 10 66.7 120 12.0 41 4.1 37 0
Golden Tate SEA 82 13 15.9 8 61.5 115 14.4 58 7.3 52 0
Damian Williams TEN 57 8 14.0 6 75 78 13.0 24 4.0 23 0
Arrelious Benn TB 59 8 13.6 6 75 67 11.2 13 2.2 18 0
Mike A. Williams TB 304 40 13.2 23 57.5 283 12.3 94 4.1 37 3
Blair White IND 84 11 13.1 6 54.5 66 11.0 9 1.5 19 1
Stephen Williams ARZ 155 20 12.9 7 35 75 10.7 30 4.3 17 0
David Gettis CAR 207 23 11.1 10 43.5 119 11.9 27 2.7 21 0
Max Komar ARZ 99 11 11.1 5 45.5 58 11.6 20 4.0 20 0
Brandon LaFell CAR 182 20 11.0 5 25 83 16.6 13 2.6 44 0
Jordan Shipley CIN 177 19 10.7 15 78.9 190 12.7 31 2.1 51 0
Mardy Gilyard SL 140 15 10.7 6 40 63 10.5 14 2.3 21 0
Dexter McCluster KC 179 16 8.9 10 62.5 106 10.6 97 9.7 31 1
Riley Cooper PHI 31 2 6.5 1 50 20 20.0 8 8.0 20 0
Andre Roberts ARZ 42 2 4.8 2 100 27 13.5 1 0.5 14 0
Jacoby Ford OAK 43 2 4.7 0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0

*Targets divided by offensive snaps. Minimum 20 snaps required

Tight End

Aaron Hernandez (64 snaps, 82.1%) and Rob Gronkowski (46 snaps, 59.0%) started the game against Baltimore as expected. Unfortunately, Gronkowski did not see an increase in targets despite playing more snaps with the departure of Randy Moss. Hernandez continues to lead all rookie tight ends in targets and is tied for the league-lead in receptions with 22. Mike Clay ranks Hernandez as the sixth-best tight end for the remainder of the season in PPR leagues.

Tony Moeaki was not able to take advantage of the Texans’ poor pass defense with only 3 targets and 2 receptions for 21 yards. He was only targeted 4.1% of the time in his 73 snaps.

Jimmy Graham had a touchdown called back due to penalty. He is not a viable fantasy option yet, he only played 3 snaps against Tampa Bay.

Andrew Quarless played the most snaps (27) of any tight end, although Green Bay did not start a TE in their first offensive formation. Kory Hall (FB) and Jordy Nelson (WR) both earned the starting nods in place of the injured Jermichael Finley. Quarless’ 2 targets make him a questionable fantasy option going forward. Look for Nelson and James Jones to pick up the slack left by Finley.

Name Team Snaps TA % TA/SN* Rec. % Ct Yds Yds / Rec. YAC YAC / Rec. LG TD
Jimmy Graham NO 25 3 12.0 1 33.3 11 11 17 17 11 0
Aaron Hernandez NE 233 26 11.2 22 84.6 301 13.7 172 7.8 46 0
Michael Hoomanawanui SL 27 3 11.1 2 66.7 13 6.5 8 4 8 0
Andrew Quarless GB 83 8 9.6 5 62.5 74 14.8 25 5 23 0
Jermaine Gresham CIN 301 29 9.6 22 75.9 158 7.2 132 6 27 2
Tony Moeaki KC 268 24 9.0 18 75 194 10.8 62 3.4 27 2
Nate Byham SF 86 5 5.8 5 100 27 5.4 28 5.6 9 0
Rob Gronkowski NE 205 8 3.9 7 87.5 86 12.3 34 4.9 24 2
Ed Dickson BLT 136 5 3.7 3 60 82 27.3 30 10 58 0
Brody Eldridge IND 152 5 3.3 3 60 23 7.7 13 4.3 10 0

*Targets divided by offensive snaps. Minimum 25 snaps required

Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_Fontaine

*Statistics courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com

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