Tag Archives: Jonathan Dwyer

Top 25 Rookies for 2010

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The 2010 NFL Season begins in just 60 days.  Many of you are starting your fantasy football draft prep work or have already drafted some of your teams.  To help you win your league, we are going to take a break from our dynasty rookie rankings and focus on what rookies you should draft this summer.

Knowing when to draft rookies in your redraft league can be an important part of the success of your fantasy team.  Rookies are overvalued in fantasy drafts, so we have also included each player’s current ADP in PPR leagues.  This will give you an idea of their perceived value.  For example, Montario Hardesty is a better value than Ben Tate in our opinion – and you can draft him almost a round and a half later or more than Tate.

Our Player Projections are current as of July 10, 2010.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Ryan Mathews SD 10 28 1035 9 28 209 1

Outlook: Ryan Mathews is an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year award as the successor to LaDainian Tomlinson in the Chargers backfield.  Head Coach Norv Turner has already penciled in Mathews for 250 carries and 40 receptions.  Darren Sproles is back for another season as the third-down back and could steal some carries from the rookie.  Mathews did struggle with injuries at Fresno State which will cause concerns for fantasy owners.  Mathews has crept into the first round of many drafts; however, we would feel more comfortable with Mathews as a RB2 and is a good bet to exceed 1,000 rushing yards and score 9-10 touchdowns.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Jahvid Best DET 7 50 882 6 38 281 1

Outlook: Jahvid Best will give Ryan Mathews a run for the Rookie of the Year honors.  Best is one of favorite players from this draft class and could be considered a poor-man’s Chris Johnson with his electrifying speed in the open field.  However, proceed with caution in drafting Best early in your fantasy drafts; the Lions have struggled on offense in recent years and they face a tough schedule in 2010.  With a big season in 2010, Jahvid Best may be one of the best keeper options available next year.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB CJ Spiller BUF 6 62 562 3 40 335 1

Outlook: At the time of writing this, Marshawn Lynch is still a member of the Bills which hampers the value of C.J. Spiller this season.  Spiller was a favorite of many experts leading up to the NFL draft.  Spiller is viewed as an all-around player that can also contribute on special teams; however, he may already have maxed out his potential.  Spiller will be used similarly to Reggie Bush has been for the Saints, and that is also a good player comparison for his early career.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Montario Hardesty CLE 8 96 698 6 18 122 0

Outlook: Montario Hardesty was drafted to be a big-back compliment to Jerome Harrison, and based on his early camp reports, may ultimately pass Harrison on the depth chart sooner than later.  Hardesty was a late-bloomer at Tennessee and struggled with injuries at times.  The Browns have made improvements under Mike Holmgren; however, it is unlikely that Hardesty will be anything more than a flex option this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Dez Bryant DAL 4 74 2 0 44 657 5

Outlook: Dez Bryant slid down draft boards due to maturity and character concerns.  Jerry Jones traded up in the draft to land one of the best college wide receivers in recent memory.  Bryant will have no issues displacing Roy Williams in the starting lineup, and is already slated to have punt return duties to begin the season.  Bryant is one of the few wide receivers from this draft class that could be a potential keeper in 2010.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Ben Tate HOU 7 80 564 4 20 168 1

Outlook: Ben Tate enters training camp in a battle with Steve Slaton and Arian Foster for the starting running back spot.  Tate was a late-riser in the draft process with an impressive combine performance, although, he does not play as fast as he timed at the combine.  Tate fits the Texans’ one-cut running scheme well.  Tate is currently overvalued in redraft leagues, and is a risky selection with the uncertainty of who will start for the team.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Dexter McCluster KC 4 154 72 1 43 499 3

Outlook: Dexter McCluster will open the season as the starting slot wide receiver for the Chiefs.  For what McCluster lacks in size, he makes up for it in sheer play-making ability and versatility.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Golden Tate SEA 5 131 28 0 43 524 3

Outlook: The 2009 Biletnikoff Award winner will likely open the season as a starting wide receiver for the Seahawks over T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Deion Branch.  Tate is a physical player and would have been a first round selection in the NFL Draft if he had ideal size.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Arrelious Benn TB 4 153 4 0 42 547 3

Outlook: Arrelious Benn is almost assured of a starting spot as the Buccaneers attempt to replace the departed Antonio Bryant.  Benn declared for the NFL Draft after struggling in his junior campaign with nagging injuries and poor quarterback play.  Benn is a physical player with decent speed, but struggled to make big-plays in college.  He has more value in PPR leagues where second-year quarterback Josh Freeman will be looking his way often this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Mike Williams TB 4 179 0 0 38 559 3

Outlook: The troubled ex-Syracuse wide receiver fell in the NFL Draft because of character concerns.  When he was on the field, he looked like a first round talent.  He has a great situation to become a starting receiver with Arrelious Benn this year.  Williams has to prove that he is willing to put in the work to become a solid pro before you should pull the trigger during your draft.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 9 142 3 0 35 506 3

Outlook: Demaryius Thomas was surprising the first wide receiver selected before Dez Bryant on the first day of the draft.  Thomas is a high character player with loads of talent.  Thomas is a similar player to fellow Georgia Tech alumni Calvin Johnson; however, he lacks the same polish entering the NFL.  Thomas is the best long-term bet to help fill the role left by the trade of Brandon Marshall this offseason.  Thomas will have to beat out either Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney to get regular targets in Josh McDaniel’s offense.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Toby Gerhart MIN 4 160 325 3 16 112 0

Outlook: Toby Gerhart is the handcuff running back to Adrian Peterson owners with the departure of Chester Taylor to the rival Bears.  Gerhart could see some action as the short-yardage back.  If Peterson goes down with an injury, it is not a certainty that Gerhart would receive all the carries or participate in a committee.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD PassYds TD INT
QB Sam Bradford STL 9 192 123 1 2856 13 16

Outlook: Sam Bradford is the only rookie with a good possibility of opening the season as a starter for his team.  The Rams finally selected their franchise quarterback after passing on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez.  Bradford has top-10 fantasy upside down the road, but he is going to struggle as a rookie with a poor supporting cast and a rebuilding offensive line.  He could be useful in a spot start, but do not expect to count on Bradford on a weekly basis this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Joe McKnight NYJ 7 205 204 2 17 137 0

Outlook: Joe McKnight was drafted to be the understudy to Tomlinson and provide help in the return game and on third down.  McKnight struggled at USC with Reggie Bush comparisons, and he should only be considered in the deepest of redraft leagues.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 6 186 0 0 36 381 3

Outlook: Jermaine Gresham will give the Bengals the first legitimate weapon at the tight end position in recent memory. Gresham missed the entire 2009 season due to knee surgery, but scored 14 touchdowns in 2008. Gresham has shown the ability to become a true three-down tight end – now the question is can the Bengals find a way to use Gresham on the football field. Offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski does not have a history of featuring the tight end in his offense.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Brandon LaFell CAR 6 264 0 0 20 265 1

Outlook: Brandon LaFell will compete with Dwayne Jarrett for the No. 2 wide receiver job this season.  The winner of the competition will not make much of a fantasy impact, the Panthers remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Jordan Shipley CIN 6 264 0 0 22 241 1

Outlook: Jordan Shipley will compete with Andre Caldwell for the slot receiver  job.  If Shipley wins the job at some point this season, he could be worth a flier in deeper PPR leagues.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Jonathan Dwyer PIT 5 258 175 1 8 64 0

Outlook: Jonathan Dwyer slipped to the sixth round due to a failed drug test.  He could earn the short-yard role as a rookie.  He does have the size to become the feature back if Rashard Mendenhall went down with an injury.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Mardy Gilyard STL 9 264 0 0 17 201 1

Outlook: Mardy Gilyard was an impressive college performer at Cincinnati, but he looks like he will focus on kick and punt return duties in his rookie season.  If he sees any game action in 2010, it will likely be in the slot at the expense of Danny Amendola.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Anthony Dixon SF 9 259 121 1 10 80 0

Outlook: Anthony Dixon also slipped to the sixth round.  He will compete with Glen Coffee to backup Frank Gore.  Dixon is a limited player; however, he could be a late season waiver wire steal if Gore misses time again this season.  He is a physical back that could take the punishment as a featured back.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Damian Williams TEN 9 264 0 0 15 167 1

Outlook: Damian Williams gives the Titans a young receiver to eventually pair with second-year player Kenny Britt, but Williams is blocked this season by Nate Washington.  The Titans run their offense quite literally through Chris Johnson at this point, so it is tough to see the team passing more this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Andre Roberts ARI 6 264 0 0 13 167 1

Outlook: The former Citadel star likely will not see the field much in 2010 as the Cardinals shift to a run-first philosophy after the retirement of QB Kurt Warner.  Roberts is worth monitoring if injuries strike the Cardinals receiving core sans Anquan Boldin.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Deji Karim JAC 9 266 110 0 9 73 0

Outlook: Karim will compete with Rashad Jennings to backup Maurice Jones-Drew.  Even though Karim was just a small school player from Southern Illinois, he put on a show for NFL scouts at his pro-day.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB James Starks GB 10 267 149 1 6 49 0

Outlook: Starks will likely red-shirt this season behind Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson.  Starks missed his senior season at Buffalo.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
TE Aaron Hernandez NE 5 264 0 0 23 254 2

Outlook: Aaron Hernandez is likely to earn the move-tight end role for the Patriots this season while fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski handles the in-line duties.  Hernandez is generating a lot of positive buzz in OTA’s, however, with all the options QB Tom Brady has on offense, it is hard to see Hernandez getting consistent targets in his rookie season.

Rookie Rankings – Running Back

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We have worked hard at Rookie Blitz headquarters to compile information and game tape for the 2010 NFL Draft class.

We are now ready to release our initial rookie fantasy rankings after reviewing college production, scouting reports, all-star games, and the scouting combine.  We have already reviewed the top tight ends and wide receivers available.

Top-12 Tight Ends
Top-30 Wide Receivers

Running Backs

ACC Championship - Clemson v Georgia Tech

There are two clear-cut tiers of rookie running backs available for the 2010 draft class.

C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer, Montario Hardesty, and Toby Gerhart make up tier one.  Each of these players should be considered in the first round of rookie drafts.

C.J. Spiller would fit in any offensive scheme and is the top running back available.  Spiller should be taken first overall over Dez Bryant in non-ppr scoring formats.

Ryan Mathews has generated plenty of buzz since the conclusion of the college season and now deserves first round consideration in the NFL Draft. Mathews had a stellar combine workout that backed up what scouts have seen of his Fresno State tape.  Jahvid Best rivals Spiller as a playmaker and could develop into a special player despite his small stature.

There are many similarities between Jonathan Dwyer and Shonn Greene of the Jets.  Both were considered first round locks prior to the draft process and were downgraded because of their lack of top-end speed.  Dwyer will not win a foot race with Spiller or Best, however, he may be the best power back in this draft.  Dwyer could be a steal in the mid-first round of rookie drafts like Greene was in 2009.

Georgia v Tennessee

Montario Hardesty had a solid combine performance and has made everyone take a second look at his college game tape.  Toby Gerhart is not a fullback and he will be a solid starter at tailback for many years.  We have concerns about his college workload at Stanford, but it will not prevent him from having a successful career.

Ben Tate leads off the second tier, which concludes with LeGarrette Blount as our 15th ranked prospect .  The running backs in this tier could have value in the right situation.  Tate opened some eyes with his combine performance, although, we do not feel he plays as fast as his 40 yard dash time would indicate.  Tate looked very average during the Senior Bowl.

Joe McKnight has not become the second coming of Reggie Bush like his press clipping had suggested.  Deji Karim from Southern Illinois is a late round player to keep an eye on as a small-school prospect.

If James Starks can prove he is healthy, he could move up several spots in our rankings.  He was considered a first round player going into his senior season, but a shoulder injury sidelined him for the entire year.  LeGarrette Blount has begun to repair his reputation after being suspended for most of his senior season.

The remainder of the running backs are worth nothing more than a late round flier in your draft.

1. C.J. Spiller – Clemson
2. Jahvid Best – California
3. Ryan Mathews – Fresno State
4. Jonathan Dwyer – Georgia Tech
5. Montario Hardesty – Tennessee
6. Toby Gerhart – Stanford
7. Ben Tate – Auburn
8. Dimitri Nance – Arizona State
9. Charles Scott – LSU
10. Joe McKnight – USC
11. Deji Karim – Southern Illinois
12. Lonyae Miller – Fresno State
13. Anthony Dixon – Mississippi State
14. James Starks – Buffalo
15. LeGarrette Blount – Oregon
16. Javarris James – Miami (FL)
17. Joique Bell – Wayne State
18. Shawnbrey McNeal – Southern Methodist
19. Darius Marshall – Marshall
20. Stafon Johnson – USC
21. Keiland Williams – LSU
22. Andre Anderson – Tulane
23. Roy Upchurch – Alabama
24. Chris Brown – Oklahoma
25. Keith Toston – Oklahoma State
26. Andre Dixon – Connecticut
27. Patrick Paschall – North Dakota State
28. Brandon Minor – Michigan
29. Michael Smith – Arkansas
30. Lamarcus Coker – Hampton

State of the Franchise: Cleveland Browns

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In the second installment of State of the Franchise, RookieBlitz.com will scout the worst teams in the NFL and find out what they need to get back to the top of the standings.  Our second team is the Cleveland Browns of the AFC North.  Click here for our review of the St. Louis Rams.

Foundation: Coach Eric Mangini has a lot of holes on his team and it is still up in the air whether or not he will be the one dealing with this issue in 2010.  As it stands now “The Mistake by the Lake” at least has a few bright spots.  The offense is led by its above average offensive line.  Left tackle Joe Thomas is one of the best in the league and is a great building block to start with.  Next to Thomas,  left guard Eric Steinbach is in the prime of his career and is locked up to a long-term deal.  Also, rookie 1st round pick, Alex Mack has helped anchor this line at center.  The only  playmakers on offense are receivers Mohamed Massaquoi and Joshua Cribbs, but neither are true number one receivers and are too inconsistent.  Rookie running back James Davis will be looking for a fresh start in 2010 after being injured in 2009, but he does have the ability to contribute to the running game.

Defensive tackle Shaun Rogers hasn’t played to his potential this year but he does lack a supporting cast.  Rogers could be dealt for more picks in 2010 or he could be the anchor of the defense next season, only time will tell.  Inside linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson, was one of the leagues best until he got injured in week 6.  His contract is up at season’s end, but no matter who is running this team, they will attempt to lock him up long-term.  Linebacker Kamerion Wimbley is having his best season since his rookie campaign and can contribute to the pass rush.  Corners Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald still have another year under contract with the Browns after 2009.  I believe they are decent corners but are overly exposed due to the lack of pressure the Browns put on opposing quarterbacks.  I’d still look to upgrade McDonald if I could though.  The Browns have to almost start from scratch when it comes to re-building, but they have some key players in a few key positions to start with.  The only positions I can guarantee you the Browns won’t draft come April are left tackle, left guard and center.  All other positions are up for grabs, but I think the Browns and the Rams are playing for rights to quarterback Jimmy Clausen.

Off-season Needs: QB, RB, WR, TE, RG, RT, DE, DT, OLB, ILB, CB, S

Quarterback: Current Status - Brady Quinn is under contract through 2011 and could receive a huge bonus if he takes 70% of the snaps in 2009.  If the Browns allow this to happen it would be a huge mistake.   After the next two weeks the Browns will know what they have in Brady Quinn when they play the Chargers and the Steelers.  If Quinn plays 70% of the snaps I believe he will be too hard to trade because of his potential contract.  So after the next two weeks, if you don’t like what you see, which they won’t, bench him for Anderson and try trading him.  Derek Anderson is under contract through 2010 and will make between 7 and 9 million.  I’d try and trade him too or simply release him before his roster bonus is due.  Anderson is better suited to play with a lot of weapons, the Browns don’t have that.  Anderson could be a solid starter in the league but not for the Browns.

Possible Future – As it currently stands now, the Browns would be picking 1st overall in the draft just as the Rams were when I wrote the article about them.  This portion is basically the same because the Rams and Browns have a need at the quarterback position.  However, the Browns aren’t guaranteed to draft a quarterback as the Rams appear to be.  I’d go with Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame with that pick.  Clausen appears to still be the most polished of the top quarterbacks coming out.  Sam Bradford would be a major risk with the 1st overall pick due to his shoulder injury and because of the fact he doesn’t play under center, but you never know if Mangini is still calling the shots.  Jake Locker is another option, but he doesn’t play under center and is not a proven winner.  Locker is rising fast on many draft boards but he is still behind Clausen on mine.

The only quarterback currently in the league that could be an option over the guys they currently have is Michael Vick.  I’d love to see it only for the idea that Vick would be playing in front of the Dawg Pound.  At the very least it would allow the Browns to draft defense in the 1st round and would certainly bring a national buzz to the team.  He would most likely put fans in the stands as well because he is an exciting player to watch.  Vick has a career winning percent over 57%, so why not bring a winner to a losing franchise?

Other needs: If the Browns decide to cut ties with Quinn and Anderson, or pass on Clausen, Bradford, Locker, or Vick, quarterbacks Tim Tebow, Ryan Mallett, and Jevan Snead might be available in the 2nd round of the draft.  Tebow would certainly bring a positive, winning attitude to Cleveland, but doesn’t project to be a good NFL quarterback.  Some believe he could change the pro style game though.  At the very least he would sell a ton of jersey’s.  Mallett has a strong-arm and reminds me of Flacco, but isn’t as ready as Flacco was coming out of college.  Snead at one point was a favorite to be the 1st overall pick but he has struggled as of late.  Snead reminds me of Eli Manning, not because they both went to Ole Miss, but because at times they look very lost and make poor throws.  One more quarterback to throw out there is Tony Pike, who could be available in round 3 or could perhaps rise to the 2nd round.  He is from Cincinnati so I’m sure the Browns scouts have got a good look at this kid as he would be an instant hit with the fans.  In my opinion, all would be an upgrade over Quinn.  Running back Johnathan Dwyer could be a steal in round 2 for the Browns or they could wait on guys like Toby Gerhart, Ryan Mathews, or Evan Royster.  They have too many needs I think to grab a receiver early, the only option I feel is if Dez Bryant falls to the 2nd round or if they draft Clausen and feel like re-uniting him with Golden Tate, who I feel is as talented as Percy Harvin.  Browns will likely address the offensive line in the later rounds of the draft as they might even be able to lure solid free agents to the right side of their line.  Only way they draft line early is if Vick or Tebow is their quarterback.

If the Browns pass on drafting a quarterback in the 1st round, defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy would be solid additions especially if they feel Rogers isn’t part of the re-building process.  Both are disruptive and could change the game single-handedly.  Solid linebackers that fit their scheme could be had after the 1st round, such players include, Jerry Hughes, Sergio Kindle, George Selvie, Eric Norwood, and Von Miller.  I doubt they target a corner early in the draft as it appears to be a weak class in terms of stars and McDonald can get them by if they improve in other areas.  They need lots of help at safety and there are options out there.  If they fall out of the 1st overall pick, they could very well go for Eric Berry out of Tennessee.  He is compared to Ed Reed, I wouldn’t go that far but he is certainly a playmaker.  I don’t see any franchise taking a safety 1st overall but if Mangini is the coach, you never know.  All in all, “The Mistake by the Lake” appears to be in such bad shape that no matter who they draft or sign, it will help them.  If Holmgren or Parcells decide to sign on and take charge over the football operations, that would certainly change everything.  Mike Holmgren appears to be the odds on favorite right now for the job.