Tag Archives: Jordan Shipley

The Rookie Blitz – Week 7 in Review

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The Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the fantasy football impact of each NFL Draft class.

This week I am going to introduce Fantasy Points per Opportunity (Fantasy Points per Pass Route and Running Attempt – excludes snaps where blocking occurs). This new metric will work with percentage targeted on total snaps played to highlight rookies who are on the verge of a potential breakout. Read on for more.

Quarterback

Sam Bradford is clearly the top rookie quarterback. At this point it is more fair to compare Bradford against his fellow starting quarterbacks in the NFL than his rookie counterparts. Bradford, ranked 15th in fantasy points in most formats and is holding his own in many categories, but lacking in several others. He ranks near the top of the league in drop backs, attempts and completions. Bradford has room for improvement in his completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception rate and sacks taken. Continue reading →

The Rookie Blitz – Week 4 in Review

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The Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the fantasy football impact of each NFL Draft class.

Quarterback

Sam Bradford continues to impress and it is looking more probable that he will be a top-10 dynasty QB. Bradford has even more room to grow and progress; he is currently only using about two-thirds of the field on his throws and only 12.7% of his passes by direction have gone outside the numbers to the left. The interesting thing to watch going forward is whether the Rams will limit his throws and reads to the right side of the field or if it is only a matter of where his favorite receivers are lining up. Mark Clayton (37 targets) has lined up primarily on the right at flanker, while Brandon Gibson and Laurent Robinson have lined up on the left at split end. Continue reading →

The Rookie Blitz – Week 2 in Review

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The Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the fantasy football impact of each NFL Draft class.

Quarterback

Sam Bradford continued his strong play in his first road start versus Oakland and his PFF rating of +3.8 is tied for 14th among QBs after two games. The Rams have done an excellent job in allowing him to make good decisions on the field. Like most rookie QBs, Bradford is not reading the entire field – only 13.8% of his 80 passing attempts have gone to the left side of the field. With all the injuries to starting quarterbacks and many teams making a switch to their backup QB, Bradford is a legitimate backup option for your fantasy team. Continue reading →

The Rookie Blitz – Week 1 in Review

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The Rookie Blitz goes beyond the box score to examine the fantasy football impact of each NFL Draft class.

Week 1 is in the books and we finally have new raw data to analyze and evaluate. Each week during the season, I will use the premium statistics of PFF to provide a unique view of the key rookies for your fantasy football team.

Quarterback

Sam Bradford had an impressive rookie debut against the Cardinals. His fellow rookie counterparts Tim Tebow (2 rushing attempts) and Jimmy Clausen (2 passing attempts) were in for a few snaps, but neither played the entire game like Bradford. If we look back at the opening weekend debuts of quarterbacks from the past three seasons, how does Bradford stack up? Continue reading →

The Rookie Blitz: Volume 1 – Hall of Fame Weekend

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Hall of Fame weekend is always a great way to kick off the new NFL season and reflect back on some of the game’s all-time greats.

This induction ceremony was particularly noteworthy to me because Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith were in the prime of their careers when I began watching football.  It is not often that the league’s all-time leading receiver and rusher are inducted at the same time, and we may never see a class as impressive as this one for a very long time.  Rice and Smith’s achievements should not overshadow the equally impressive careers of Dick LeBeau, Floyd Little, Russ Grimm, John Randle and Rickey Jackson.

Sunday night marked the return of football to living rooms across the country when the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals squared off in the opening preseason game.  Often preseason games are unwatchable to the casual football fan after the first quarter, but they can provide some helpful insight for fantasy owners.  More on the Dallas and Cincinnati game in just a bit.

Last season’s opening preseason game between the Bills and Titans ended in a 21-18 Tennessee win.  Going back over the box score, nothing stands out as noteworthy other than the debut of Terrell Owens in a Bills uniform.  We certainly didn’t know that Chris Johnson would eclipse the 2,000 yard mark by the end of the season with his 6 carry for 17 yards (2.8 avg) day.

Watching the Dallas and Cincinnati game had a similar feel as the Bills and Titans game.  The following rookies managed to standout for each team:

Dallas

WR Dez Bryant would have been the star attraction in this game, but his high ankle sprain will keep him out of preseason action.  He hopes to return for Week 1.  Impressive linebacker Sean Lee also did not see any game action.  RB Lonyae Miller had an underwhelming performance with 5 yards rushing on 8 carries and 2 receptions for 11 yards.  Undrafted tight end Scott Sicko from the University of New Hampshire hauled in 5 receptions for 44 yards and may have earned the third-string job with the season ending injury to John Phillips.

Cincinnati

Jermaine Gresham played in the game after signing his rookie deal last Monday, but did not record a catch.  Jordan Shipley provided the lone highlight for the Bengals with his nifty 64 yard punt return at the end of the fourth quarter.  Big plays like that help ease concerns about his playing speed at the next level.  DT Geno Atkins lead the team with 6 tackles, 3 for loss, and a sack.  Atkins is undersized at 6’1”, but the Bengals will get the rookie involved and he could be worth a look in deeper dynasty leagues with a DT requirement.  Dezmon Briscoe had 1 catch for 11 yards

Preseason Week 1 – Games/Rookies to Watch

Here are the top five games to catch this weekend to evaluate the impact rookies as the rest of the league returns to action.

Click here for a review of my top-20 rookies for 2010.

Thursday August 12, 2010

New Orleans at New England

NO –TE Jimmy Graham CB Patrick Robinson
NE – TE Aaron Hernandez TE Rob Gronkowski WR Taylor Price LB Brandon Spikes

  • The hype around Jimmy Graham is making him a popular last round flier in many redraft leagues.  Bill Belichick will not show his gameplan much, but look to see how they utilize both tight ends early in the game.  Price and Spikes have already impressed the local Boston beat writers.

Friday August 13, 2010

Kansas City at Atlanta

KC – WR Dexter McCluster S Eric Berry TE Anthony Moeaki
ATL – LB Sean Weatherspoon WR Kerry Meier

  • Eric Berry is already making plays all over the field in early intrasquad scrimmages.  Moeaki may not play due to an ankle injury.  Watch for McCluster to be utilized as a WR, RB and KR early on.  Kerry Meier gets a chance to step up early with the injury to Michael Jenkins.

Saturday August 14, 2010

Detroit at Pittsburgh

DET – RB Jahvid Best DT Ndamukong Suh
PIT – RB Jonathan Dwyer WR Emmanuel Sanders LB Jason Worilds

  • Fantasy owners get their first look at Jahvid Best in a Lions uniform this weekend.  If Best can manage a big play or touchdown run, his ADP could skyrocket even higher.  Dwyer fell to the sixth round in the draft.  He will get an opportunity to beat up on third and fourth stringers late in this contest.

Minnesota at St. Louis

MIN – RB Toby Gerhart WR/QB Joe Webb
STL – QB Sam Bradford TE Fendi Onobun WR Mardy Gilyard

  • Toby Gerhart has to show he can be the primary backup to Adrian Peterson.  Joe Webb was ticketed for WR duty before Brett Favre pulled his annual retirement antics.  The real story is QB Sam Bradford.  Can he be the franchise QB that St. Louis desperately needs?  Early reports have been impressive and it appears he is on track to start in Week 1.

Houston at Arizona

HOU – RB Ben Tate TE Garrett Graham WR Dorin Dickerson CB Kareem Jackson
ARI – LB Daryl Washington WR Andre Roberts QB John Skelton

  • Texans coach Gary Kubiak caused a stir this week when he said Dorin Dickerson has the body and tools to become a starting WR in the NFL.  Dickerson struggled as a hybrid WR/TE at Pitt, but now becomes of interest in dynasty leagues.  RB Ben Tate might already be falling behind Arian Foster to become the Texans’ starting RB.  Skelton is a dark-horse QB prospect.  He is raw and has a cannon for an arm but lacks polish and accuracy.

Nationally Televised Preseason Games this week:

Thursday August 12, 2010 – Carolina at Baltimore  8:00 PM ET ESPN
Rookies: QB Jimmy Clausen WR Brandon LaFell TE Dennis Pitta TE Ed Dickson

Monday August 16, 2010 – New York Giants at New York Jets 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Rookies: DE Jason Pierre-Paul RB Joe McKnight LB Phillip Dillard CB Kyle Wilson

Top 25 Rookies for 2010

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The 2010 NFL Season begins in just 60 days.  Many of you are starting your fantasy football draft prep work or have already drafted some of your teams.  To help you win your league, we are going to take a break from our dynasty rookie rankings and focus on what rookies you should draft this summer.

Knowing when to draft rookies in your redraft league can be an important part of the success of your fantasy team.  Rookies are overvalued in fantasy drafts, so we have also included each player’s current ADP in PPR leagues.  This will give you an idea of their perceived value.  For example, Montario Hardesty is a better value than Ben Tate in our opinion – and you can draft him almost a round and a half later or more than Tate.

Our Player Projections are current as of July 10, 2010.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Ryan Mathews SD 10 28 1035 9 28 209 1

Outlook: Ryan Mathews is an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year award as the successor to LaDainian Tomlinson in the Chargers backfield.  Head Coach Norv Turner has already penciled in Mathews for 250 carries and 40 receptions.  Darren Sproles is back for another season as the third-down back and could steal some carries from the rookie.  Mathews did struggle with injuries at Fresno State which will cause concerns for fantasy owners.  Mathews has crept into the first round of many drafts; however, we would feel more comfortable with Mathews as a RB2 and is a good bet to exceed 1,000 rushing yards and score 9-10 touchdowns.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Jahvid Best DET 7 50 882 6 38 281 1

Outlook: Jahvid Best will give Ryan Mathews a run for the Rookie of the Year honors.  Best is one of favorite players from this draft class and could be considered a poor-man’s Chris Johnson with his electrifying speed in the open field.  However, proceed with caution in drafting Best early in your fantasy drafts; the Lions have struggled on offense in recent years and they face a tough schedule in 2010.  With a big season in 2010, Jahvid Best may be one of the best keeper options available next year.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB CJ Spiller BUF 6 62 562 3 40 335 1

Outlook: At the time of writing this, Marshawn Lynch is still a member of the Bills which hampers the value of C.J. Spiller this season.  Spiller was a favorite of many experts leading up to the NFL draft.  Spiller is viewed as an all-around player that can also contribute on special teams; however, he may already have maxed out his potential.  Spiller will be used similarly to Reggie Bush has been for the Saints, and that is also a good player comparison for his early career.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Montario Hardesty CLE 8 96 698 6 18 122 0

Outlook: Montario Hardesty was drafted to be a big-back compliment to Jerome Harrison, and based on his early camp reports, may ultimately pass Harrison on the depth chart sooner than later.  Hardesty was a late-bloomer at Tennessee and struggled with injuries at times.  The Browns have made improvements under Mike Holmgren; however, it is unlikely that Hardesty will be anything more than a flex option this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Dez Bryant DAL 4 74 2 0 44 657 5

Outlook: Dez Bryant slid down draft boards due to maturity and character concerns.  Jerry Jones traded up in the draft to land one of the best college wide receivers in recent memory.  Bryant will have no issues displacing Roy Williams in the starting lineup, and is already slated to have punt return duties to begin the season.  Bryant is one of the few wide receivers from this draft class that could be a potential keeper in 2010.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Ben Tate HOU 7 80 564 4 20 168 1

Outlook: Ben Tate enters training camp in a battle with Steve Slaton and Arian Foster for the starting running back spot.  Tate was a late-riser in the draft process with an impressive combine performance, although, he does not play as fast as he timed at the combine.  Tate fits the Texans’ one-cut running scheme well.  Tate is currently overvalued in redraft leagues, and is a risky selection with the uncertainty of who will start for the team.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Dexter McCluster KC 4 154 72 1 43 499 3

Outlook: Dexter McCluster will open the season as the starting slot wide receiver for the Chiefs.  For what McCluster lacks in size, he makes up for it in sheer play-making ability and versatility.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Golden Tate SEA 5 131 28 0 43 524 3

Outlook: The 2009 Biletnikoff Award winner will likely open the season as a starting wide receiver for the Seahawks over T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Deion Branch.  Tate is a physical player and would have been a first round selection in the NFL Draft if he had ideal size.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Arrelious Benn TB 4 153 4 0 42 547 3

Outlook: Arrelious Benn is almost assured of a starting spot as the Buccaneers attempt to replace the departed Antonio Bryant.  Benn declared for the NFL Draft after struggling in his junior campaign with nagging injuries and poor quarterback play.  Benn is a physical player with decent speed, but struggled to make big-plays in college.  He has more value in PPR leagues where second-year quarterback Josh Freeman will be looking his way often this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Mike Williams TB 4 179 0 0 38 559 3

Outlook: The troubled ex-Syracuse wide receiver fell in the NFL Draft because of character concerns.  When he was on the field, he looked like a first round talent.  He has a great situation to become a starting receiver with Arrelious Benn this year.  Williams has to prove that he is willing to put in the work to become a solid pro before you should pull the trigger during your draft.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 9 142 3 0 35 506 3

Outlook: Demaryius Thomas was surprising the first wide receiver selected before Dez Bryant on the first day of the draft.  Thomas is a high character player with loads of talent.  Thomas is a similar player to fellow Georgia Tech alumni Calvin Johnson; however, he lacks the same polish entering the NFL.  Thomas is the best long-term bet to help fill the role left by the trade of Brandon Marshall this offseason.  Thomas will have to beat out either Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney to get regular targets in Josh McDaniel’s offense.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Toby Gerhart MIN 4 160 325 3 16 112 0

Outlook: Toby Gerhart is the handcuff running back to Adrian Peterson owners with the departure of Chester Taylor to the rival Bears.  Gerhart could see some action as the short-yardage back.  If Peterson goes down with an injury, it is not a certainty that Gerhart would receive all the carries or participate in a committee.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD PassYds TD INT
QB Sam Bradford STL 9 192 123 1 2856 13 16

Outlook: Sam Bradford is the only rookie with a good possibility of opening the season as a starter for his team.  The Rams finally selected their franchise quarterback after passing on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez.  Bradford has top-10 fantasy upside down the road, but he is going to struggle as a rookie with a poor supporting cast and a rebuilding offensive line.  He could be useful in a spot start, but do not expect to count on Bradford on a weekly basis this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Joe McKnight NYJ 7 205 204 2 17 137 0

Outlook: Joe McKnight was drafted to be the understudy to Tomlinson and provide help in the return game and on third down.  McKnight struggled at USC with Reggie Bush comparisons, and he should only be considered in the deepest of redraft leagues.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
TE Jermaine Gresham CIN 6 186 0 0 36 381 3

Outlook: Jermaine Gresham will give the Bengals the first legitimate weapon at the tight end position in recent memory. Gresham missed the entire 2009 season due to knee surgery, but scored 14 touchdowns in 2008. Gresham has shown the ability to become a true three-down tight end – now the question is can the Bengals find a way to use Gresham on the football field. Offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski does not have a history of featuring the tight end in his offense.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Brandon LaFell CAR 6 264 0 0 20 265 1

Outlook: Brandon LaFell will compete with Dwayne Jarrett for the No. 2 wide receiver job this season.  The winner of the competition will not make much of a fantasy impact, the Panthers remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Jordan Shipley CIN 6 264 0 0 22 241 1

Outlook: Jordan Shipley will compete with Andre Caldwell for the slot receiver  job.  If Shipley wins the job at some point this season, he could be worth a flier in deeper PPR leagues.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Jonathan Dwyer PIT 5 258 175 1 8 64 0

Outlook: Jonathan Dwyer slipped to the sixth round due to a failed drug test.  He could earn the short-yard role as a rookie.  He does have the size to become the feature back if Rashard Mendenhall went down with an injury.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Mardy Gilyard STL 9 264 0 0 17 201 1

Outlook: Mardy Gilyard was an impressive college performer at Cincinnati, but he looks like he will focus on kick and punt return duties in his rookie season.  If he sees any game action in 2010, it will likely be in the slot at the expense of Danny Amendola.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Anthony Dixon SF 9 259 121 1 10 80 0

Outlook: Anthony Dixon also slipped to the sixth round.  He will compete with Glen Coffee to backup Frank Gore.  Dixon is a limited player; however, he could be a late season waiver wire steal if Gore misses time again this season.  He is a physical back that could take the punishment as a featured back.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Damian Williams TEN 9 264 0 0 15 167 1

Outlook: Damian Williams gives the Titans a young receiver to eventually pair with second-year player Kenny Britt, but Williams is blocked this season by Nate Washington.  The Titans run their offense quite literally through Chris Johnson at this point, so it is tough to see the team passing more this season.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
WR Andre Roberts ARI 6 264 0 0 13 167 1

Outlook: The former Citadel star likely will not see the field much in 2010 as the Cardinals shift to a run-first philosophy after the retirement of QB Kurt Warner.  Roberts is worth monitoring if injuries strike the Cardinals receiving core sans Anquan Boldin.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB Deji Karim JAC 9 266 110 0 9 73 0

Outlook: Karim will compete with Rashad Jennings to backup Maurice Jones-Drew.  Even though Karim was just a small school player from Southern Illinois, he put on a show for NFL scouts at his pro-day.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
RB James Starks GB 10 267 149 1 6 49 0

Outlook: Starks will likely red-shirt this season behind Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson.  Starks missed his senior season at Buffalo.

POS Player Team Bye ADP RushYds RushTD RecYds RecYds RecTD
TE Aaron Hernandez NE 5 264 0 0 23 254 2

Outlook: Aaron Hernandez is likely to earn the move-tight end role for the Patriots this season while fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski handles the in-line duties.  Hernandez is generating a lot of positive buzz in OTA’s, however, with all the options QB Tom Brady has on offense, it is hard to see Hernandez getting consistent targets in his rookie season.

Shipley and Robinson impress in All-Star Challenge

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The College Football All-Star Challenge was a good opportunity to evaluate the intangibles of each player that may not show up on game tape.  It allowed you to see how the players interacted with each other and how they competed in the non-traditional football drills.  The results and times of the participants are not as important, but the event is another tool in the evaluation process.

12th Annual Mercedes-Benz College Football All-Star Challenge
Florida International University (Miami, FL)
Taped on Monday February 1, 2010 (Originally aired February 5th, 2010 on ESPN)
ESPN Commentators: Todd McShay, Bob Davie and Mark Jones

AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic - Oklahoma State v Mississippi

Participants:

Dan LeFevour, QB – Central Michigan
Jevan Snead, QB – Mississippi
Zac Robinson, QB – Oklahoma State
Sean Canfield, QB – Oregon State

Dez Bryant, WR – Oklahoma State
Damian Williams, WR – USC
Mardy Gilyard, WR – Cincinnati
Jordan Shipley, WR – Texas


Rookie Blitz Top 100 (Ranking in Parenthesis)

Zac Robinson (UR), Stock: Up

Zac Robinson was one of the best performers of the day and he continued to impress after his solid Senior Bowl outing.  Robinson was poised and had a smooth delivery with decent arm strength.   Despite winning the long distance throwing contest, Robinson’s deep throws required a big windup and sailed long in the accuracy contest.   Zac Robinson may have enough game to become a spot starter after a few seasons in the NFL.

Dan LeFevour (22), Stock: Unchanged

Dan LeFevour remains the third best quarterback in this draft class behind Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford.  LeFevour was very confident in himself to the point where it was borderline arrogance.  That may turn off a few teams during the NFL Draft, but he remains a perfect fit for a west-coast offense.  LeFevour showed pin-point accuracy in his short to intermediate throws while his deep throws lacked zip.  In the agility drill, LeFevour showed the ability to throw on the run well.

Jevan Snead (91), Stock: Down

Jevan Snead was very disappointing and appeared very stiff and rigid in the drills.  Snead is not a fluid athlete and did not carry himself well.  He appeared to be the loner of the group and that confirms the concerns teams will have about his leadership and his ability to command an NFL huddle.  He was erratic and mechanical with many of his throws.  His poor performance makes you wonder why he decided to declare early for the NFL Draft.

Sean Canfield (UR), Stock: Unchanged

Sean Canfield continued to look average and did not stand from the other quarterbacks.  Canfield often threw flat footed and missed several easy throws.  At one point he missed three targets in a row that were less than 10 yards away.  Canfield remains a candidate to be drafted in the late rounds as a development project because of his senior year production at Oregon State.

Dez Bryant (1), Stock: Unchanged

Dez Bryant competed well in his first action since his suspension by the NCAA in September.  Based on his performance, Bryant remains the top prospect on our draft board.  Bryant was fluid for a bigger receiver and put his excellent hands on display in the various drills.  Bryant was often seen joking around with Mardy Gilyard and was playful in front of the camera before and after the commercial breaks.  The maturity issues still remain, but there is no question this kid loves to play football.

Damian Williams (10), Stock: Unchanged

Damien Williams showed he is a solid individual and could be one of the safest picks at wide receiver in this draft class.  Williams appeared very humble and well coached.  Williams showed quick feet and good change of direction for a bigger receiver.

Mardy Gilyard (16), Stock: Unchanged

Mardy Gilyard put his fun-loving personality on display while remaining ultra-competitive in the various drills.  Gilyard confirmed our belief that he was more quick than fast and he will have enough speed to make it in the NFL.  He needs to add some bulk to his frame to stand up to the weekly punishment he will endure at the next level.

Jordan Shipley (41), Stock: Up

Jordan Shipley was very impressive and we will consider moving him up our rankings.  They mentioned multiple times during the broadcast that Shipley was a coach’s son and grew up catching footballs from a Jugs machine.  Shipley put those strong hands on display and caught the ball well away from his body.    Shipley will be an ideal slot receiver with surprising quickness and could have an impact like Austin Collie did last season for the Colts.