Tag Archives: Matt Cassel

Fantasy Football Stock Market – Preseason Edition 2: QB

In the return of our weekly Fantasy Football Stock Market article, we will be highlighting players that you should buy (undervalued) and sell (overvalued).  We will also provide information on Penny Stock players – players outside the top 250 in ADP or on waivers in the deepest of fantasy leagues that could pay off huge dividends at little or no cost to your fantasy team.  We will be focusing on one position per week, with quarterbacks are up next.

Buy

David Garrard – Jacksonville Jaguars

David Garrrard is one of the least appreciated QBs in the league by his coaching staff and the Jacksonville fans.  Garrard, a 2009 Pro Bowl alternate, is better than his perceived value.  With two rookie tackles, Garrard was again one of the best running QBs (led league with 35 designed runs, 4.2 yards/carry and 3 TD) and was fifth in the league with 592 drop backs to pass.

The Jaguars’ passing attack will improve in 2010.  Mike Sims-Walker, Jarett Dillard and Mike Thomas will have another year under their belts and the Jaguars will need to pass often with a shaky defense to keep up in the AFC South.  Do not buy into the competition with Luke McCown, this is Garrard’s team.  Garrard will be a top fantasy backup this year and he will come at a fraction of the cost at his current ADP.

Matt Cassel – Kansas City Chiefs

There is reason for optimism for Kansas City, even after Matt Cassel struggled in his first season with the team.  Cassel regressed in nearly every major category and fell from being the 8th ranked fantasy QB in 2008 to 21st in 2009.  Cassel works better underneath and with intermediate throws and may never be a downfield threat.  Cassel was 2nd in the league last year with 42 dropped passes by his receivers.

Cassel’s supporting cast in 2010 has improved with the additions of Thomas Jones, Jerheme Urban and the drafting of Dexter McCluster.  Charlie Weis was brought in to run the offense and retool the offense with more short and intermediate routes.  Weis is a QB guru; he made Brady Quinn into a first round pick while at Notre Dame and helped develop Tom Brady into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  The Chiefs have one of the easiest schedules this season, and Cassel presents high upside at his current ADP.

Sell

Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals

Carson Palmer struggled last season as the season wore on and it became clear that it was because of his arm issues.  He did not have the same arm strength he showed earlier in his career.  Palmer opted to rehab in the offseason and claims his arm is healthier than ever.

Palmer is being drafted as a top-15 QB, and he will have a tough time cracking the top 20.  In fact, Palmer may be headed for a career decline at age 30.  Palmer threw 50% of his throws underneath or short pass attempts, and his 6.7 yards per attempt ranked 19th in the league.  Palmer was erratic with his throws, completing only 60.5% of his passes despite not going downfield much.  Despite drafting Jermaine Gresham and adding Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant in free agency, Palmer will struggle to live up to his ADP of QB15.

Chad Henne – Miami Dolphins

Chad Henne enters his third season in the NFL as a potential breakout candidate with Brandon Marshall now in town.  After looking further at the numbers, Henne will not take a giant leap forward in his development with the addition of Marshall and subtraction of Ted Ginn Jr.  The Dolphins let Henne throw over 40 pass attempts per game late in the season, but he only finished 23rd in pass completion percentage (60.8) and 24th in passing yards per attempt (6.4) in the league.

Henne will be a solid NFL quarterback; however, he will struggle as a fantasy option with poor decision-making and consistency because of a lack of a deep threat.  Marshall is a yards after catch monster and lethal on third downs, but he can’t stretch the field and the remainder of the Dolphins’ receivers are possession types.  Henne lacks the upside to out produce his current ADP.

Penny Stocks

Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos

Kyle Orton has to see the writing on the wall with the off-season acquisitions of Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow.  His long-term tenure as the Broncos’ starting QB is shaky at best.  Orton did prove to be an above average starter in his first season in Denver.  He ranked 17th in the NFL with 7.0 yards per attempt and 14th in completion percentage (62.1%).

Orton still has plenty of weapons in Denver despite the departure of Brandon Marshall to Miami.  Rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will look to fill the void left by Marshall.  Orton will reap the benefits of an easy schedule that includes matchups against Seattle, St. Louis and Jacksonville.  Orton could easily outperform his current ADP and keep the starting job all season.

Trent Edwards – Buffalo Bills

New head coach Chan Gailey has not named his starting quarterback yet, but all signs point to Trent Edwards earning the nod.  Buffalo’s offense isn’t elite by any measure and they lack the playmakers to strike fear into opposing defensive coordinators.

Edwards is worth a late flier at the end of your roster or taxi squad based on Gailey’s track record with unheralded QBs.  Gailey has turned Kordell Stewart (#2, 1997), Jay Fiedler (#10, 2001) and Tyler Thigpen (#12, 2008) into fantasy starters.  If Edwards can trust his offensive line enough to go downfield with the football, he can be a viable backup option in deeper leagues.

All statistics courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com

Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable: Sleepers & Busts for Week 6

This article can be found at Football Diehards written by Ginny Loveless:

As we head into week 6 of the NFL season, the fantasy realm is abuzz with updates and injuries.  Here are some important tidbits to remember . . .

*WR Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is listed as doubtful and has not practiced all week. WR David Clowney will be in the starting lineup and could pick up where he left off last week, fantasy-wise. With Cotchery out, it appears Braylon Edwards’ fantasy stock rises even more, considering the interest QB Mark Sanchez has showed to him thus far.  (NY Jets vs. Buffalo)

*RB Knowshon Moreno is still the featured back in Denver, although RB Correll Buckhalter (ankle) is predicted to return this week.  Keep an eye on potential the role-changes in Denver.  (Denver @San Diego)

*RB Mike Bell is to return to the field this week after missing two games with a knee injury. While this seemingly makes the Saints’ backfield a bit more crowded, RB Pierre Thomas (hamstring) has been limited in practice all week and is listed as probable.   (New Orleans vs. Giants)

*QB Matthew Stafford (knee) and WR Calvin Johnson (knee) are unlikely to play on Sunday; both have sat out of practice all week and are officially listed as questionable. QB Daunte Culpepper is expected to make his second start, while WR Dennis Northcutt is slated to lineup opposite Bryant Johnson is Calvin Johnson’s stead.   (Detroit @ Green Bay)

*RB Willie Parker (turf toe) is expected to return to the field, and has practiced every day this week. RB Rashard Mendenhall is still reported to be the starter in Pittsburgh, although Parker is slated to get a bite-size portion of the carries.  The good news is that this week they are playing at home against the NFL’s worst run defense.  (Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland)

*Other key injuries, currently listed as QUESTIONABLE:

Arizona WR Steve Breaston (knee)

Minnesota WR Percy Harvin (shoulder)

Cincinnati RB Brian Leonard (groin) – Doubtful

Philadelphia WR Kevin Curtis (knee)

Oakland WR Chaz Schilens (foot)

New England TE Benjamin Watson (head)

*Teams on bye: Indianapolis Colts,  Dallas Cowboys,  San Francisco 49ers , and Miami Dolphins.

Without further ado, here is our expert edition of the Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable that you have been dying to get your hands on all week.

Ginny Loveless, www.footballdiehards.com (@GBGinny)

Sleeper#1: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Coming off his best performance of the year (5/87/1), Donnie Avery faces a Jaguar defense that gives up a monstrous average of 29.6 fantasy points to opposing receivers. To those same receivers, the Jags have allowed 1000+ receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Per receiver, that’s an average 16 receptions for 205 yards and 1.8 touchdowns! While that data is slightly inflated due to the outrageous performances of TJ Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson last week, the concept remains the same: opposing WR’s should excel against Jacksonville. The Jags have also allowed the most receptions (78) to rival wide receivers, and Avery is the most-targeted player on the team with an average of 6.4 per game. On a side note, while I officially list Donnie Avery as the sleeper WR for St. Louis this week, keep your eye on Keenan Burton.  His targets increased two-fold from weeks four to five, with a 44.4% increase since the departure of Laurent Robinson.

Sleeper#2: Thomas Jones, RB, NY Jets

In this home game against Buffalo, it seems like the Jets’ main running back, Thomas Jones, is going to have a sweet ride.  The Bills are under serious injury constraints with the loss of linebackers Paul Posluzny and John DiGeorgio and backups Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs. In addition, safeties Donte Whitner and Bryan Scott have been out for the past two matchups.  (Reports indicate, however, that Posluzny and Whitner should be back this week.) Nonetheless, the Bills give their opposing running backs an average of 24.6 fantasy points per game, with an average of 151 rushing yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game.  And since the Jets like to spread the ball around their backfield, Leon Washington and possibly (in a blow-out situation) Shonn Greene could make for effective Flex plays if you face bye week issues.

Sleeper#3: Jermicheal Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers

This is one of those times when you stash a player on your bench and start him for a prime-time situational matchup. Last week I told everyone to start Finley since he was up against Minnesota, the most gracious team towards opposing tight ends. Finely broke out against them with six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown.  If you missed out, don’t fret – start him this week against the Lions.  So far this year, the Lions have allowed six touchdowns their opposing tight ends, the most of any team in the league, giving those tight ends an average of 10.2 fantasy points per game.

Jim Day, www.fantasyfootballwhiz.com (@fantasytaz)

Bust#1: Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Over the last three games, Matt Cassel has been the 12th ranked QB in fantasy points. That ends this week. He is going against a Washington defense that is ranked third against opposing QBs and has only allowed one TD per game through the 1st five weeks. When you add in that KC has allowed their QBs to be sacked 17 times, I am looking for Cassel to be running for his life all game.

Bust#2: Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks

After getting off to a better start than most fantasy owners expected, Jones has come back down to earth the last two weeks, only scoring a total of 10 fantasy points in both weeks combined. This week he goes against a Cardinals defense that has not allowed a single rusher over 66 yards in any contest. When you consider they have faced the likes of Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, and Steve Slaton, they have done their job. Look for them to shut down Jones this week.

Bust#3: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

I know I am going to get a ton of flack for this, as a matter of fact I had some arguments going back and forth on twitter this week about it, but Cincy has done a great job shutting down opposing teams #1 WR. Looking back at the CIN/PIT game, some would make the argument that Hines Ward might still be considered the #1, but most fantasy owners don’t think that. Holmes has been the #1 for a while now.  I know AJ can always break a big one and turn this right around, but I just think he will have a tough game against a suddenly very tough Leon Hall.

Greg Dietz, www.bigtroph.com (@GregDietz)

Running Back Sleeper: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook’s role in the Philadelphia offense is on the down slope right now based solely on the fact that head coach Andy Reid said that he would be splitting carries with McCoy from here on out. Seeing as Westbrook only managed to get six carries last week, I imagine that his numbers (while not being as low as six carries each week) will continue to decline over the course of the season. In steps McCoy who was impressive in his one game as a starter (20 carries for 84 yards) and is averaging over four yards per carry in limited action. Add that to the fact that Philadelphia is playing Oakland and its 31st ranked rush defense on Sunday and McCoy is suddenly a very tempting option this week despite sharing carries with the aging Westbrook.

Running Back Bust: LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

Tomlinson is one running back that I never thought would hit a wall. However, he has been plagued by injuries nearly all year and when he actually is on the field; he is averaging only 10 rushes per game and 3.5 yards per carry. He has looked no better than a backup at this point yet people continue to plug him into their lineups based on his name alone. Well this week the Chargers face off against the Broncos and this isn’t quite the Denver defense that took the field in 2008. The best a single back has done against the Broncos this season was Cedric Benson back in week one when he gained 76 yards on the ground. Since then, they have been downright nasty in stopping opposing runners and currently rank ninth overall in rush defense. Tomlinson might find his stride at some point this year, but it won’t be against Mike Nolan’s stout defense on Monday night.

Chet Gresham, www.razzball.com (@razzball)

Quarterback Sleeper: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

After a huge game last week he may not count as a sleeper, but there is a good chance he is your backup QB and unless you have a stud with a great matchup I believe Hasselbeck is your man.  He is at home once again, which is often key for the Seahawks and he gets the Cardinals who have given up the most yards per game through the air. There is a good chance that Arizona’s passing attack will keep them in the game which should allow Hass plenty of opportunity to throw to Burleson and Houshmandzadeh.

Quarterback Bust: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

I’m not going to tell you to sit Philip Rivers for JaMarcus Russell, but Denver’s pass defense isn’t just a fluke. I would start Hasselbeck over him this week and not feel bad about it. Well, a little, but sometimes we have to trust the statistics and Denver has given up the least amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks.  I think it’s time to get on the Denver defensive bandwagon even though they average about 52 years of age.

Matt Schauf, RapidDraft.com (@mschauf63)

Wide Receiver Sleeper: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers so far than Jacksonville. Although many of those can be attributed to last week’s four-touchdown debacle against Seattle, the Jaguars have yielded at least one touchdown to opposing wideouts every week. In addition, at least one enemy receiver has finished each game with seven catches or more. Avery ranked behind Keenan Burton in targets last week (and he’s also a sleeper this time), but it was Avery who caught three of Marc Bulger’s seven passes, including the touchdown, upon Bulger’s entrance.

Wide Receiver Bust: Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

No starting X receiver has caught more than four passes against the Bengals and CB Leon Hall this year. Among all wideouts, only one has caught a touchdown pass against Cincinnati that was actually thrown to him. (The other, of course, was that miracle tip and bounce to Brandon Stokely.) As good as Johnson is, he has already had three games this year in which he caught four passes or fewer. The players Hall has already helped to neutralize include Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes and Derrick Mason.

Jason Sarney- www.fantasyphenoms.com (@fantasyphenoms)

Tight End Sleeper: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars

With a soft match-up against St. Louis, look for David Garrard to spread the ball around and utilize his big TE, Lewis. I think four catches for about 50 yards is the bare minimum Lewis can do for your squad with a good chance at finding the end-zone this Sunday.

Tight End Bust: Kevin Boss, NY Giants

Boss was a Week 5 scratch due to an ankle injury and the Giants have too many weapons to rely on Boss in Week 6 against a good Saints defense. The TE to start in this game is ex-Giant and current Saint, Jeremy Shockey. He’ll no doubt want to stick it to his old squad.

Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com (@rookieblitz)

Team Defense Sleeper: Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)

Green Bay is coming off their bye week fully rested after the tough loss to the Vikings in Week 4.  Green Bay has had an extra week to study some old Daunte Culpepper game tape as the Lions will probably be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford again this week.  Without Calvin Johnson, Al Harris and Charles Woodson will have no problem shutting down Bryant Johnson and company.  Green Bay won’t let up in the 2nd half like Pittsburgh did last week, they’ll keep the pressure on so that they can keep pace in the tough NFC North.  Green Bay was probably dropped last week in your league because of their bye week, make sure to scoop them off the waiver wire this week and start them with confidence.  Another defensive score like rookie LB Clay Matthews’ TD against the Vikings is not out of the question.

Team Defense Bust: Chicago Bears (at Atlanta Falcons)

Chicago draws a tough matchup versus the white-hot Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome on Sunday Night Football. The Bears finally return to the scene of one of Matt Ryan’s most impressive highlights from his rookie season, the last second 22-20 victory by the Falcons over the Bears.  The Bears won’t have much of a chance to atone for their loss last season as the Falcons are coming off a 45-10 drubbing of an upstart 49ers team.  The Bears still remain a name defense to many casual fantasy football owners, but they’ll continue to struggle without Brian Urlacher who is lost for the season.  The 3-1 Bears are giving up 19.5 points per game, and Atlanta could easily score over 30 this week.  If you don’t have another option it would be recommended to hit the waiver wire this week.