Tag Archives: Matthew Stafford

2009 NFL Season Review: Rookie Quarterbacks

The first round of the 2009 NFL Draft featured three young quarterbacks who have a bright future in the league.  We will review the rookie performances of Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman.

In any assessment, it is always best to evaluate your first impressions and thoughts.  In early July, we profiled each player with our analysis, projected stats, and player comparisons.

Quarterbacks – 2009 Season Preview – July 10, 2009

Each rookie quarterback threw for a higher number of interceptions than we expected, but even Peyton Manning threw a league high 28 interceptions in his 1998 rookie season.  Read on for our take on each quarterback.

Matthew Stafford – Lions
2009 Projected Stats
2209 yards passing, 12 TD, 15 INT, 97 yards rushing, 1 TD
2009 Actual Stats – 2267 yards passing, 13 TD, 20 INT, 108 yards rushing, 2 TD

Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions made Matthew Stafford their Week 1 starter at quarterback, and allowed him to take his lumps right out of the gate.  Stafford flashed enough potential to confirm the Lions made the right choice by taking him with the first overall selection in the 2009 NFL Draft.  Stafford led the Lions to an early season win over Washington that helped erase the memory of the winless 2008 team.  The Lions endured another tough season, but there is reason for hope in Detroit.

Stafford’s rookie season was cut short by injury and he was not given much help from his teammates.  His 20 interceptions are not alarming; Manning threw for 28 in his rookie season.  Stafford won over his teammates and the city of Detroit with his stirring last-second comeback win versus Cleveland in Week 11.  Stafford threw the game-winning touchdown with a dislocated shoulder he suffered on the second-to-last play of the game.  Once the Browns called a time out to align their goal line defense, Stafford dodged the trainers and coaching staff to take the final snap and throw for the game-winning touchdown.

Stafford represents a high-upside fantasy option as your backup quarterback in 2010.  Head Coach Jim Schwartz will continue to rebuild the Lions franchise from the ground up and Stafford should have an improved supporting cast to continue his development.

Mark Sanchez – Jets
2009 Projected Stats
2408 yards passing, 11 TD, 12 INT, 67 yards rushing, 0 TD
2009 Actual Stats – 2444 yards passing, 12 TD, 20 INT, 106 yards rushing, 3 TD

Cincinnati Bengals v New York Jets

Mark Sanchez was named the Jets starter over veteran Kellen Clemens during the preseason by head coach Rex Ryan.  It proved to be a sound decision as the Jets were able to able to make the playoffs with their top overall defense and their power running game led by Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene.

In the preseason, we wrote that Sanchez’s rookie season would be similar to that of Joe Flacco’s rookie season in 2008.  Like Flacco, Sanchez managed the game for a playoff contender and converted the 3rd and long situations for the Jets offense.  Sanchez had an up-and-down season, and his rhythm seemed to be thrown off when wide receiver Braylon Edwards was acquired from the Cleveland Browns at midseason.  Sanchez was routinely let down by the untimely drops of Edwards after counting on Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller early in the season.  Ryan never lost confidence in his hand-picked quarterback, and the future looks bright in New York for Sanchez.

Mark Sanchez displayed all the necessary traits of a young franchise quarterback and his charisma and enthusiasm are a perfect fit to handle the fickle fans and media of New York.  Sanchez will eventually develop into a low-end fantasy starting quarterback, but he will have to contend with the swirling winds of the Meadowlands each winter.  The Jets will also remain a run-first offense under Rex Ryan, which could limit the value of Sanchez.  Sanchez will forever be linked to Matthew Stafford in his career and after one season, the early edge  has to go to Sanchez.

Josh Freeman – Buccaneers
2009 Projected Stats
962 yards passing, 6 TD, 6 INT, 90 yards rushing, 0 TD
2008 Actual Stats – 1857 yards passing, 10 TD, 18 INT, 162 yards rushing, 0 TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Atlanta Falcons

Josh Freeman was handed the starting quarterback job by head coach Raheem Morris at midseason after the Buccaneers returned home from London, England.  Freeman received more playing time than we originally expected in the preseason, but the Buccaneers needed a spark after starting the season 0-7.  Freeman showed flashes of potential as he tried to live up to his first round selection and led the team to wins over the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints.

We were critical of the Buccaneers’ decision to reach for Freeman in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft.  The Redskins also reached for their current quarterback, Jason Campbell in 2005, whose skill set and situation is almost identical to Freeman’s.  Both players share impressive physical tools, but would have been better suited in their development to sit and learn the NFL game first.

Freeman was not a starting fantasy option at quarterback in 2009 and the Buccaneers need to surround him with more offensive weapons to be an option in the future.  Freeman should develop into a capable starting NFL quarterback, but he will never develop into a top-tier franchise player.

Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable: Sleepers & Busts for Week 6

This article can be found at Football Diehards written by Ginny Loveless:

As we head into week 6 of the NFL season, the fantasy realm is abuzz with updates and injuries.  Here are some important tidbits to remember . . .

*WR Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is listed as doubtful and has not practiced all week. WR David Clowney will be in the starting lineup and could pick up where he left off last week, fantasy-wise. With Cotchery out, it appears Braylon Edwards’ fantasy stock rises even more, considering the interest QB Mark Sanchez has showed to him thus far.  (NY Jets vs. Buffalo)

*RB Knowshon Moreno is still the featured back in Denver, although RB Correll Buckhalter (ankle) is predicted to return this week.  Keep an eye on potential the role-changes in Denver.  (Denver @San Diego)

*RB Mike Bell is to return to the field this week after missing two games with a knee injury. While this seemingly makes the Saints’ backfield a bit more crowded, RB Pierre Thomas (hamstring) has been limited in practice all week and is listed as probable.   (New Orleans vs. Giants)

*QB Matthew Stafford (knee) and WR Calvin Johnson (knee) are unlikely to play on Sunday; both have sat out of practice all week and are officially listed as questionable. QB Daunte Culpepper is expected to make his second start, while WR Dennis Northcutt is slated to lineup opposite Bryant Johnson is Calvin Johnson’s stead.   (Detroit @ Green Bay)

*RB Willie Parker (turf toe) is expected to return to the field, and has practiced every day this week. RB Rashard Mendenhall is still reported to be the starter in Pittsburgh, although Parker is slated to get a bite-size portion of the carries.  The good news is that this week they are playing at home against the NFL’s worst run defense.  (Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland)

*Other key injuries, currently listed as QUESTIONABLE:

Arizona WR Steve Breaston (knee)

Minnesota WR Percy Harvin (shoulder)

Cincinnati RB Brian Leonard (groin) – Doubtful

Philadelphia WR Kevin Curtis (knee)

Oakland WR Chaz Schilens (foot)

New England TE Benjamin Watson (head)

*Teams on bye: Indianapolis Colts,  Dallas Cowboys,  San Francisco 49ers , and Miami Dolphins.

Without further ado, here is our expert edition of the Twitter Fantasy Football Roundtable that you have been dying to get your hands on all week.

Ginny Loveless, www.footballdiehards.com (@GBGinny)

Sleeper#1: Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis Rams

Coming off his best performance of the year (5/87/1), Donnie Avery faces a Jaguar defense that gives up a monstrous average of 29.6 fantasy points to opposing receivers. To those same receivers, the Jags have allowed 1000+ receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Per receiver, that’s an average 16 receptions for 205 yards and 1.8 touchdowns! While that data is slightly inflated due to the outrageous performances of TJ Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson last week, the concept remains the same: opposing WR’s should excel against Jacksonville. The Jags have also allowed the most receptions (78) to rival wide receivers, and Avery is the most-targeted player on the team with an average of 6.4 per game. On a side note, while I officially list Donnie Avery as the sleeper WR for St. Louis this week, keep your eye on Keenan Burton.  His targets increased two-fold from weeks four to five, with a 44.4% increase since the departure of Laurent Robinson.

Sleeper#2: Thomas Jones, RB, NY Jets

In this home game against Buffalo, it seems like the Jets’ main running back, Thomas Jones, is going to have a sweet ride.  The Bills are under serious injury constraints with the loss of linebackers Paul Posluzny and John DiGeorgio and backups Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs. In addition, safeties Donte Whitner and Bryan Scott have been out for the past two matchups.  (Reports indicate, however, that Posluzny and Whitner should be back this week.) Nonetheless, the Bills give their opposing running backs an average of 24.6 fantasy points per game, with an average of 151 rushing yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game.  And since the Jets like to spread the ball around their backfield, Leon Washington and possibly (in a blow-out situation) Shonn Greene could make for effective Flex plays if you face bye week issues.

Sleeper#3: Jermicheal Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers

This is one of those times when you stash a player on your bench and start him for a prime-time situational matchup. Last week I told everyone to start Finley since he was up against Minnesota, the most gracious team towards opposing tight ends. Finely broke out against them with six catches for 128 yards and a touchdown.  If you missed out, don’t fret – start him this week against the Lions.  So far this year, the Lions have allowed six touchdowns their opposing tight ends, the most of any team in the league, giving those tight ends an average of 10.2 fantasy points per game.

Jim Day, www.fantasyfootballwhiz.com (@fantasytaz)

Bust#1: Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Over the last three games, Matt Cassel has been the 12th ranked QB in fantasy points. That ends this week. He is going against a Washington defense that is ranked third against opposing QBs and has only allowed one TD per game through the 1st five weeks. When you add in that KC has allowed their QBs to be sacked 17 times, I am looking for Cassel to be running for his life all game.

Bust#2: Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks

After getting off to a better start than most fantasy owners expected, Jones has come back down to earth the last two weeks, only scoring a total of 10 fantasy points in both weeks combined. This week he goes against a Cardinals defense that has not allowed a single rusher over 66 yards in any contest. When you consider they have faced the likes of Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, and Steve Slaton, they have done their job. Look for them to shut down Jones this week.

Bust#3: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

I know I am going to get a ton of flack for this, as a matter of fact I had some arguments going back and forth on twitter this week about it, but Cincy has done a great job shutting down opposing teams #1 WR. Looking back at the CIN/PIT game, some would make the argument that Hines Ward might still be considered the #1, but most fantasy owners don’t think that. Holmes has been the #1 for a while now.  I know AJ can always break a big one and turn this right around, but I just think he will have a tough game against a suddenly very tough Leon Hall.

Greg Dietz, www.bigtroph.com (@GregDietz)

Running Back Sleeper: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Westbrook’s role in the Philadelphia offense is on the down slope right now based solely on the fact that head coach Andy Reid said that he would be splitting carries with McCoy from here on out. Seeing as Westbrook only managed to get six carries last week, I imagine that his numbers (while not being as low as six carries each week) will continue to decline over the course of the season. In steps McCoy who was impressive in his one game as a starter (20 carries for 84 yards) and is averaging over four yards per carry in limited action. Add that to the fact that Philadelphia is playing Oakland and its 31st ranked rush defense on Sunday and McCoy is suddenly a very tempting option this week despite sharing carries with the aging Westbrook.

Running Back Bust: LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

Tomlinson is one running back that I never thought would hit a wall. However, he has been plagued by injuries nearly all year and when he actually is on the field; he is averaging only 10 rushes per game and 3.5 yards per carry. He has looked no better than a backup at this point yet people continue to plug him into their lineups based on his name alone. Well this week the Chargers face off against the Broncos and this isn’t quite the Denver defense that took the field in 2008. The best a single back has done against the Broncos this season was Cedric Benson back in week one when he gained 76 yards on the ground. Since then, they have been downright nasty in stopping opposing runners and currently rank ninth overall in rush defense. Tomlinson might find his stride at some point this year, but it won’t be against Mike Nolan’s stout defense on Monday night.

Chet Gresham, www.razzball.com (@razzball)

Quarterback Sleeper: Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks

After a huge game last week he may not count as a sleeper, but there is a good chance he is your backup QB and unless you have a stud with a great matchup I believe Hasselbeck is your man.  He is at home once again, which is often key for the Seahawks and he gets the Cardinals who have given up the most yards per game through the air. There is a good chance that Arizona’s passing attack will keep them in the game which should allow Hass plenty of opportunity to throw to Burleson and Houshmandzadeh.

Quarterback Bust: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

I’m not going to tell you to sit Philip Rivers for JaMarcus Russell, but Denver’s pass defense isn’t just a fluke. I would start Hasselbeck over him this week and not feel bad about it. Well, a little, but sometimes we have to trust the statistics and Denver has given up the least amount of fantasy points to quarterbacks.  I think it’s time to get on the Denver defensive bandwagon even though they average about 52 years of age.

Matt Schauf, RapidDraft.com (@mschauf63)

Wide Receiver Sleeper: Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams

No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers so far than Jacksonville. Although many of those can be attributed to last week’s four-touchdown debacle against Seattle, the Jaguars have yielded at least one touchdown to opposing wideouts every week. In addition, at least one enemy receiver has finished each game with seven catches or more. Avery ranked behind Keenan Burton in targets last week (and he’s also a sleeper this time), but it was Avery who caught three of Marc Bulger’s seven passes, including the touchdown, upon Bulger’s entrance.

Wide Receiver Bust: Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

No starting X receiver has caught more than four passes against the Bengals and CB Leon Hall this year. Among all wideouts, only one has caught a touchdown pass against Cincinnati that was actually thrown to him. (The other, of course, was that miracle tip and bounce to Brandon Stokely.) As good as Johnson is, he has already had three games this year in which he caught four passes or fewer. The players Hall has already helped to neutralize include Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Santonio Holmes and Derrick Mason.

Jason Sarney- www.fantasyphenoms.com (@fantasyphenoms)

Tight End Sleeper: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars

With a soft match-up against St. Louis, look for David Garrard to spread the ball around and utilize his big TE, Lewis. I think four catches for about 50 yards is the bare minimum Lewis can do for your squad with a good chance at finding the end-zone this Sunday.

Tight End Bust: Kevin Boss, NY Giants

Boss was a Week 5 scratch due to an ankle injury and the Giants have too many weapons to rely on Boss in Week 6 against a good Saints defense. The TE to start in this game is ex-Giant and current Saint, Jeremy Shockey. He’ll no doubt want to stick it to his old squad.

Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com (@rookieblitz)

Team Defense Sleeper: Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit Lions)

Green Bay is coming off their bye week fully rested after the tough loss to the Vikings in Week 4.  Green Bay has had an extra week to study some old Daunte Culpepper game tape as the Lions will probably be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford again this week.  Without Calvin Johnson, Al Harris and Charles Woodson will have no problem shutting down Bryant Johnson and company.  Green Bay won’t let up in the 2nd half like Pittsburgh did last week, they’ll keep the pressure on so that they can keep pace in the tough NFC North.  Green Bay was probably dropped last week in your league because of their bye week, make sure to scoop them off the waiver wire this week and start them with confidence.  Another defensive score like rookie LB Clay Matthews’ TD against the Vikings is not out of the question.

Team Defense Bust: Chicago Bears (at Atlanta Falcons)

Chicago draws a tough matchup versus the white-hot Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome on Sunday Night Football. The Bears finally return to the scene of one of Matt Ryan’s most impressive highlights from his rookie season, the last second 22-20 victory by the Falcons over the Bears.  The Bears won’t have much of a chance to atone for their loss last season as the Falcons are coming off a 45-10 drubbing of an upstart 49ers team.  The Bears still remain a name defense to many casual fantasy football owners, but they’ll continue to struggle without Brian Urlacher who is lost for the season.  The 3-1 Bears are giving up 19.5 points per game, and Atlanta could easily score over 30 this week.  If you don’t have another option it would be recommended to hit the waiver wire this week.

Rookie Recap: Washington at Detroit

In the fourth edition of the Rookie Recap, I will breakdown the performances of Lions Quarterback Matthew Stafford and Redskins Linebacker Brian Orakpo.

Brian Orakpo

Hybrid defender Brian Orakpo notched the first sack of his career against the Lions in Week 3.  Orakpo also added 4 total tackles after being shut out statistically versus the Rams in Week 2.  Orakpo will never be a force in fantasy football if he remains eligible at strong side linebacker in many leagues.  He does retain some value in his ability to put his hand on the ground on third down to rush the quarterback, but that role would be better utilized in a traditional 3-4 scheme.  London Fletcher, LaRon Landry, and Rocky McIntosh dominated the tackle opportunities in this game, and that likely won’t change going forward this season.  Orakpo’s dynasty value is tied to eventually becoming defensive line eligible as his body matures as a pro.  He’s been often compared to DeMarcus Ware because they are both hybrid defenders, but Ware is in another class by himself.  Orakpo is definitely someone worth watching early in his career.

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford accomplished what Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper and Jon Kitna could not do in 2008; lead the Detroit Lions to victory.  The Number 1 overall draft pick in the 2009 NFL Draft helped the Lions snap their losing streak at 19 games with a 19-14 win over the Redskins.  Stafford had the best game of his young career as he played efficient football as the Lions controlled the clock for the majority of the game.  Stafford fired up his teammates by jawing with the Redskins defenders and displayed the enthusiasm and moxie that the Lions have been missing forever.  The talent level in Detroit is still subpar and the going will be rough at times in 2009, but the Lions do have some excellent building blocks in Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Head Coach Jim Schwartz.

Teams will continue to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and Bryant Johnson will have to continue to make big plays like his 21 yard touchdown grab in the 1st Quarter for Stafford to have any use as a starter in Fantasy Football this year.  I compared Stafford to Jay Cutler before the season started, and I stick by that assessment.  Stafford will run hot and cold, but his limited game action makes it quite obvious why he was the top overall selection.  I had written both Stafford and Mark Sanchez off from having any fantasy value this year, and I may rethink that stance.  Both are light years ahead in their anticipated development, and you’ll want to stash away both on your bench and keep an eye on them in your dynasty leagues for the future.

2009 Draft Class – Season Preview

Finally the preseason is over, roster cuts have been made and the season is less than a week away.  RookieBlitz.com takes a second look of its ranked players and highlights the rookies that will help you win your Fantasy Football League in 2009.  Watching preseason football can be tedious at times, but it is very important to see how the new rookies will adapt to the speed, pressure, and schemes they are put in.  Read on for several players that RookieBlitz.com recommends are on every team this season.

Find the previous RookieBlitz.com Season Previews here: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receiver (Part 1 and Part 2), and Tight Ends

Quarterback

Mark Sanchez – NYJ: Sanchez looks the part of a franchise quarterback.  He will struggle as a rookie, but he appears to have “it”.  Sanchez (NYJ vs. MIA) is a viable starting option for Aaron Rodgers owners during the Packers Week 5 Bye.

Matthew Stafford – DET: The Lions have yet to name their starting QB, and when Stafford gets his chance this season you will want to monitor him on the waiver wire depending on the size of your league.  He will run hot and cold much like a Jay Cutler, but get used to saying Stafford to Calvin Johnson.

Running Back

Knowshon Moreno – DEN: Moreno is currently nursing a knee injury that will hamper him the first few weeks of the NFL season.  The cream will rise to the top and you can use his injury to your advantage as he falls in drafts or as a trade target from a nervous owner.  He could be a key contributor for your team beginning after Week 4, and is still the RookieBlitz.com choice for Rookie of the Year.

Donald Brown – IND: This guy has everything you are looking for in a running back and is already one of the hardest working members of the Colts.  Brown could be one of the top keeper players in 2010 with a big season as the lead back in the Colts committee approach with Joseph Addai.  Brown will pass Addai at some point in 2009.

Chris “Beanie” Wells – ARI: Unless you take him early, you probably won’t get Wells on your team in 2009.  I am higher on Moreno and Brown, but Wells still is a big and fast physical specimen.  Only Tim Hightower stands in his way of the starting job.  One final word of caution, the Cardinals will still make their hay passing the ball to Fitzgerald and Boldin and there isn’t much history of successful lead backs in Arizona.

LeSean McCoy – PHI: It is hard to believe McCoy’s talent matches the massive hype surrounding him.  He was previously compared to Jamaal Charles by RookieBlitz.com, which is not a slight at either player.  Should he get an opportunity due to injury to Brian Westbrook, McCoy would be an every week start in the high powered Eagles offense even with his talent shortcomings.

Shonn Greene – NYJ: It is hard to see the hype based on the game film of Shonn Greene so far in preseason action.  Leon Washington is finally flashing his all around talent and Thomas Jones still looks like a solid running back.  Greene would get a chance with an injury to Jones, but Washington would get a larger share of the carries in that scenario.

James Davis – CLE: Davis has showed big play ability this preseason after he fell in the draft due to a subpar senior season at Clemson.  Davis will capitalize on his opportunity and will earn some late season starts as the Browns try to see what they have in him.  Don’t go too crazy to get Davis early in your drafts; Cleveland is still in for a long season in 2009.
Mike Goodson – CAR: Goodson is too talented to keep off the field as he has been one of the best stories this preseason.  You need to keep an eye on the Jonathan Stewart injury situation.  Goodson should be a target on DeAngelo Williams owners as a handcuff, Stewart will be drafted too high to be considered.

Bernard Scott – CIN: One of the stars of Hard Knocks, Scott has the best chance to be this year’s Steve Slaton.  He’s already locked down the backup job to Benson and needs to be on one of the last spots on your roster.

Glenn Coffee – SF and Rashad Jennings – JAX: Coffee will be the primary backup to Frank Gore, and Jennings will backup Maurice Jones-Drew.

Wide Receiver

Percy Harvin – MIN: One of the most hyped rookies this preseason, you need to have clarity in you believe in Harvin in 2009.  You’ll have to draft him before more established veterans like Derrick Mason, Torry Holt and Donald Driver.  Harvin’s talent is undeniable, but you may be better off going with one of the veterans instead.

Hakeem Nicks – NYG: Nicks will supplant Hixon by midseason at the latest.  Nicks has been showing his big play ability the last 2 games of the preseason and will force his way into more playing time for the Giants.

Jeremy Maclin – PHI: Maclin is developing nicely and could have more of an early opportunity with the injury concerns surrounding Kevin Curtis.  McNabb has already stated he thinks Maclin could start now.

Kenny Britt – TEN: Britt was one of the players this preseason that made me change my outlook for him based on his play.  He could develop into a matchup nightmare like a Brandon Marshall.  He is likely an early season starter with Nate Washington on the mend.

Darrius Heyward-Bey – OAK:  Chaz Schilens will be out for several more weeks, so Heyward-Bey will be the top option for the Raiders by default.  He is worth a late round flier based on his upside, but his best case scenario long term is a Bryant Johnson type that flashes ability inconsistently.

Michael Crabtree – SF: Crabtree continues to holdout.  He has little redraft value left in 2009; he is worth a last round flier as a player to watch in 2010.

Deon Butler – SEA: Butler is another player that was worth another look this preseason based on his play.  He could supplant Deion Branch at some point this season as the starting slot receiver.

Brian Hartline – MIA: Fourth round pick Brian Hartline got some starts this preseason so stay tuned to find out if it was a motivational play to Bess and Camarillo or if he is a deep sleeper good enough to start as a rookie in the NFL.

Sammie Stroughter – TB: Stroughter has proved he shouldn’t have fallen to the 7th round and has worked himself into a prominent role in the Buccaneers’ offense.

Austin Collie – IND: Collie is too talented to keep off the field.  He’ll be in a rotation with Pierre Garcon for the slot receiver position in the high octane Colts offense.

Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie – CLE: Neither player stood out this preseason, but are worth monitoring because of the wide open opportunity at wide receiver in Cleveland.

Tight End

Jared Cook – TEN: Cook will play a hybrid WR/TE role in 2009, and will make some big plays out of the slot when matched against slower linebackers.  Temper expectations (Remember Vernon Davis), but he could still be in for some big games.

Brandon Pettigrew – DET: Pettigrew will be the second receiving option for the Lions behind Calvin Johnson.  He’s not worth getting excited about, but monitor him on the waiver wire.  Rookie tight ends tend to struggle so don’t count on him for consistent production.

RookieBlitz.com Certified Fresh Rookies in 2009

The following players are worthy of being on your fantasy football roster in 2009 if at all possible:

QB: Mark Sanchez
RB: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, James Davis, Mike Goodson, Bernard Scott
WR: Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks

Donald Brown, Knowshon Moreno, and Percy Harvin will cost you a mid-round selection as the hype around each is considerable.  Each is worth the price to acquire them.

Monitor Sanchez, Davis, Goodson, Scott and Nicks as you fill out the end of your roster on draft day.  The payoff for each could be huge, and you’ll beat your leaguemates to the punch as they lead your team to the top in 2009.

Stay tuned to RookieBlitz.com thought-out the season as we highlight the key rookie performances from each week and give you the analysis you need to win your fantasy football league!

The Rookie Blitz

Some of my random thoughts on the preseason debuts of the 2009 rookie class:

Mark Sanchez looked great in his short stint when he entered the game in the 2nd quarter against the Rams.  He set the tone early with his 48 yard pass to David Clowney, and he just might have the “it” factor it takes to be a successful NFL Quarterback.  Sanchez’s enthusiasm and body language is that of someone who wants to be the starter, while Clemens looked like he was going through the motions.

Matthew Stafford also had a successful debut against the Falcons.  He did throw a pick six to the defense, but even without Calvin Johnson showed he can move the offense.  He looked to develop solid chemistry with fellow rookie Derrick Williams on his lone TD throw.

Donald Brown looks like he will live up to the hype this season.  He had a much better burst than Addai did, and once Brown picks up the blitz pickups he should be the lead back for the Colts.  Addai is much better suited for a committee than as a lead back in the NFL.

Michael Crabtree still has not signed his rookie deal yet, and as each day goes by he appears less likely to make an impact in his rookie season.  The rumors that he would sit out the entire season to reenter the 2010 Draft are just that.  He would not go higher than 10th next season.  I won’t bump down Crabtree in my rankings yet because of his dynasty value, but you might want to start looking at Josh Morgan instead in your redraft leagues.

I was surprised to see Kenny Britt’s stat line against the Buccaneers: 5 catches for 89 yards including a 37 yard touchdown catch from Vince Young.  He did limp off the field with an apparent ankle injury, but it did not appear to be serious.  You might want to start giving strong consideration to spending a late round pick on Britt if he is able to produce as he did in his debut.

Newly signed Knowshon Moreno got into the game against the 49ers and suffered a mild knee sprain.  Reports indicate he should miss 1-2 weeks and be ready for the start of the season.  This news makes Moreno an even greater value on draft day, as he will probably fall another round or two on this injury news.  Moreno is worth the risk, and could be a vital part to your fantasy football team this season.

RookieBlitz.com Rookie Draft Guide

The question every Fantasy Football owner faces each summer is when to take the new rookie players in their Fantasy Football Drafts.  It can be tough to gauge when to pull the trigger on the right player at the right time in your draft.   There are no career stats to thumb through, and only speculative player comparisons to get an idea of how well each of these players will do.  The best owners find a way to maximize the value of these players in their draft strategy and end up with several players who out produce their draft position.

Looking back to the 2008 season, there were several rookies who exceeded all expectations and likely propelled their teams into the playoffs.  If you were lucky enough last year to get a Matt Forte, Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton you can relate.   There may have been some luck involved, but the savvy fantasy football owner likely knew each of these players very well going into their draft.

Drafting rookies does not come without risk, and a team made up of mostly rookie players is unlikely to have a winning record.  Most often you hope for the best, and you optimistically project stats for a rookie at his ceiling rather than his floor or even his likely average somewhere in between.  A rookie that performs at a stud player level is highly uncommon especially at quarterback and wide receiver.  Even after breakout rookie campaigns where they led their teams to the playoffs, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were barely backup level fantasy quarterbacks last season.

RookieBlitz.com has put together a Rookies-Only Draft Guide to help you navigate through your redraft league this summer.  Each player has value and no player should be completely removed from your draft board.  You want to maximize the players that you take that will exceed the draft position they were selected in.   Many of the rookies listed below may go even higher than their listed ADP.  Using the RookieBlitz.com draft guide you can feel confident that you will stick to your draft board and not make any major reaches that will cripple your team.  Depending on the level of your competition, you may be able to get some of these players much later than the recommended round listed.

Each player has a recommendation of Draft or Pass given their current ADP.

Average Draft Position (ADP) listed as of July 30, 2009 using a 12 Team League Format

QB Matthew Stafford – DET
2009 Outlook: Competing with Daunte Culpepper to start Week 1
Current ADP:  15th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 12th Round or later

QB Mark Sanchez – NYJ
2009 Outlook: Competing with Kellen Clemens to start Week 1
Current ADP:  15th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft in the 17th Round or later

RB Knowshon Moreno – DEN
2009 Outlook: Competing to be the Broncos featured back
Current ADP:  4th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 3rd Round or later

RB Chris “Beanie” Wells – ARI
2009 Outlook: Competing with Tim Hightower for snaps at RB
Current ADP:  5th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft in the 7th Round or later

RB Donald Brown – IND
2009 Outlook: Competing with Joseph Addai for snaps at RB
Current ADP:  7th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 7th Round or later

RB LeSean McCoy – PHI
2009 Outlook: Handcuff to Brian Westbrook
Current ADP:  9th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 9th Round or later

RB Shonn Greene – NYJ
2009 Outlook: Goal-line RB
Current ADP:  12th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft in the 18th Round or later

RB Michael Crabtree – SF
2009 Outlook: Competing with Isaac Bruce to start
Current ADP:  8th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 7th Round or later

WR Hakeem Nicks – NYG
2009 Outlook: Competing to replace Plaxico Burress
Current ADP:  11th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft in the 13th Round or later

WR Percy Harvin – MIN
2009 Outlook: Starting WR, Wildcat QB
Current ADP:  10th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft  13th Round or later

WR Jeremy Maclin – PHI
2009 Outlook: Competing with Kevin Curtis to start
Current ADP:  11th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft in the 16th Round or later

WR Brian Robiskie – CLE
2009 Outlook: Starting WR
Current ADP:  14th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 12th Round or later

WR Kenny Britt – TEN
2009 Outlook: Competing to start at WR
Current ADP:   18th Round
Recommendation:  Draft – 13th Round or later

WR Darrius Heyward-Bey – OAK
2009 Outlook: Starting WR
Current ADP:  15th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft 17th Round or later

TE Brandon Pettigrew – DET
2009 Outlook: Starting TE
Current ADP:  17th Round
Recommendation:  Pass – Draft 19th Round or later

In summary, the following players will out produce their current draft position and should be players on your radar on draft day:  Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, LeSean McCoy, Michael Crabtree, Brian Robiskie, and Kenny Britt.  Don’t be disappointed if one of these players is taken before you can select them.  You’ll have someone of equal value fall to your spot after someone makes that reach.

Good luck and happy drafting from RookieBlitz.com

Quarterbacks – 2009 Season Preview

Matthew Stafford – Lions
Player Comparison – Jay Cutler
2009 Projected Stats
– 193 for 360 Comp/Att, 2209 yards passing, 12 TD, 15 INT. 97 yards rushing, 1 TD

As of right now, the Lions are entertaining the idea of throwing Stafford to the wolves for the starting quarterback job Week 1. A more likely scenario will put Stafford on the sidelines for a few weeks before getting the nod over Culpepper. Much like Jay Cutler, Stafford will look like an all-pro on one throw and then leaving your head shaking on the next.

Stafford has the talent to develop into a true franchise QB if he works on his shortcomings of accuracy and footwork. Anyone who has the opportunity to throw to the great Calvin Johnson is someone you’ll want to keep very close tabs on if reports out of Detroit indicate he might be starting.

Mark Sanchez – Jets
Player Comparison – Eli Manning
2009 Projected Stats
– 221 for 385 Comp/Att, 2408 yards passing, 11 TD, 12 INT. 67 yards rushing, 0 TD

Queue up some Joe Flacco game tape from last season and you’ll have some semblance of Sanchez’s 2009 prospects. Like Flacco, Sanchez steps into an unsettled QB situation on a playoff ready team. Head Coach Rex Ryan will ask Sanchez to manage the game and convert the 3rd and long situations their running game will put them in.

Sanchez may never be a top fantasy QB, but you will feel confident having him as an injury replacement or bye week fill in down the road.

Josh Freeman – Buccaneers
Player Comparison – Jason Campbell
2009 Projected Stats
– 81 for 163 Comp/Att, 962 yards passing, 6 TD, 6 INT. 90 yards rushing, 0 TD

Don’t expect to see much of Freeman on the field in 2009. If the Bucs fall out of playoff contention late in the season, Freeman could get a few starts like JaMarcus Russell and Jay Cutler did at the end of their rookie campaigns. Once the Bucs make the switch to Freeman, it will be his team for better or worse.

Freeman has the physical tools that make scouts drool; there is no question about that. Many failed coaches have thought they can take someone of Freeman’s talent and teach them how to be a better QB. It is not Freeman’s fault he was a first round draft selection and will be pressed into duty much sooner than he will be ready for. Expect a Jason Campbell like start to his career, which would put him on track for being run out of town in a short few seasons. If you must draft Freeman, your best bet is to sell high while the hype is still fresh in people’s mind.