Tag Archives: Rookie

Rookie Update: Gilyard, Butler, Burnett and Tebow

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Here are some updates on rookies making news this week:

Mardy Gilyard:  Agrees to four-year, $2.34 million deal

St. Louis Rams wide receiver Mardy Gilyard runs with the football during day one of the Rams rookie camp at the teams practice facility in Earth City on April 30, 2010. UPI/Bill Greenblatt Photo via Newscom

Mardy Gilyard signed his rookie deal today and he gets the chance to help the Rams improve their 29th ranked offense.  Gilyard is one of our favorite receivers in this draft class, and although he fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, he still has the chance to become a serious weapon for Sam Bradford in the future.

Gilyard does not have ideal size; however, he has shown the ability to make big plays at the college level (25 touchdowns in three years).  He excelled at the Senior Bowl this spring with five catches for 103 yards and a touchdown.

Donald Butler:  Butler catching up

Donald Butler was finally able to join the team recently due to the NCAA rule that prohibits players from being participating in their NFL team’s practices or meetings until after May 16 or the final day of their spring semester, whichever is later.

Butler did miss valuable time and has done extra work with the team to get ready, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  Butler is expected to compete for a starting job as early as this season, and by 2011 at the latest.

He makes an excellent dynasty pick as a dark horse candidate to become a top-20 linebacker in the near future.  In redraft leagues, monitor the San Diego linebacker situation closely if Stephen Cooper struggles again this year because Butler could capitalize on the opportunity.

Morgan Burnett:  Atari Bigby vs. Morgan Burnett

TotalPackers.com recently broke down the potential training camp battle between Atari Bigby and Morgan Burnett.

Burnett is a more impressive prospect that Bigby is and the major deciding factor in this battle will be experience.  Bigby has a reputation as a big-hitter; however, his coverage deficiencies have hurt the Packers’ defense in recent years.  Bigby has also struggled with injuries, playing only 20 games the past two seasons.

If Burnett wins the job, he could produce a top-10 season at safety like Bigby did in 2007.

Tim Tebow: The Tebow Question

The crew of NFL Total Access tackled the Tim Tebow debate on tonight’s show.  Brian Baldinger argued that the Broncos need to get Tebow on the field this season and get this toe in the water after trading up in the first round to draft him.  Jamie Dukes does not see Tebow as a good wildcat option and the Broncos will struggle with a way to get him game action at the expense of Kyle Orton.

Without question, Tim Tebow has and will be the most polarizing figure from the 2010 NFL Draft class.  Tebow still ranks behind Jimmy Clausen in our quarterback rankings because of the work Tebow needs to put in to become an NFL quarterback.

Rookie Rankings – Running Back

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We have worked hard at Rookie Blitz headquarters to compile information and game tape for the 2010 NFL Draft class.

We are now ready to release our initial rookie fantasy rankings after reviewing college production, scouting reports, all-star games, and the scouting combine.  We have already reviewed the top tight ends and wide receivers available.

Top-12 Tight Ends
Top-30 Wide Receivers

Running Backs

ACC Championship - Clemson v Georgia Tech

There are two clear-cut tiers of rookie running backs available for the 2010 draft class.

C.J. Spiller, Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Dwyer, Montario Hardesty, and Toby Gerhart make up tier one.  Each of these players should be considered in the first round of rookie drafts.

C.J. Spiller would fit in any offensive scheme and is the top running back available.  Spiller should be taken first overall over Dez Bryant in non-ppr scoring formats.

Ryan Mathews has generated plenty of buzz since the conclusion of the college season and now deserves first round consideration in the NFL Draft. Mathews had a stellar combine workout that backed up what scouts have seen of his Fresno State tape.  Jahvid Best rivals Spiller as a playmaker and could develop into a special player despite his small stature.

There are many similarities between Jonathan Dwyer and Shonn Greene of the Jets.  Both were considered first round locks prior to the draft process and were downgraded because of their lack of top-end speed.  Dwyer will not win a foot race with Spiller or Best, however, he may be the best power back in this draft.  Dwyer could be a steal in the mid-first round of rookie drafts like Greene was in 2009.

Georgia v Tennessee

Montario Hardesty had a solid combine performance and has made everyone take a second look at his college game tape.  Toby Gerhart is not a fullback and he will be a solid starter at tailback for many years.  We have concerns about his college workload at Stanford, but it will not prevent him from having a successful career.

Ben Tate leads off the second tier, which concludes with LeGarrette Blount as our 15th ranked prospect .  The running backs in this tier could have value in the right situation.  Tate opened some eyes with his combine performance, although, we do not feel he plays as fast as his 40 yard dash time would indicate.  Tate looked very average during the Senior Bowl.

Joe McKnight has not become the second coming of Reggie Bush like his press clipping had suggested.  Deji Karim from Southern Illinois is a late round player to keep an eye on as a small-school prospect.

If James Starks can prove he is healthy, he could move up several spots in our rankings.  He was considered a first round player going into his senior season, but a shoulder injury sidelined him for the entire year.  LeGarrette Blount has begun to repair his reputation after being suspended for most of his senior season.

The remainder of the running backs are worth nothing more than a late round flier in your draft.

1. C.J. Spiller – Clemson
2. Jahvid Best – California
3. Ryan Mathews – Fresno State
4. Jonathan Dwyer – Georgia Tech
5. Montario Hardesty – Tennessee
6. Toby Gerhart – Stanford
7. Ben Tate – Auburn
8. Dimitri Nance – Arizona State
9. Charles Scott – LSU
10. Joe McKnight – USC
11. Deji Karim – Southern Illinois
12. Lonyae Miller – Fresno State
13. Anthony Dixon – Mississippi State
14. James Starks – Buffalo
15. LeGarrette Blount – Oregon
16. Javarris James – Miami (FL)
17. Joique Bell – Wayne State
18. Shawnbrey McNeal – Southern Methodist
19. Darius Marshall – Marshall
20. Stafon Johnson – USC
21. Keiland Williams – LSU
22. Andre Anderson – Tulane
23. Roy Upchurch – Alabama
24. Chris Brown – Oklahoma
25. Keith Toston – Oklahoma State
26. Andre Dixon – Connecticut
27. Patrick Paschall – North Dakota State
28. Brandon Minor – Michigan
29. Michael Smith – Arkansas
30. Lamarcus Coker – Hampton

2009 NFL Season Review: Rookie Quarterbacks

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The first round of the 2009 NFL Draft featured three young quarterbacks who have a bright future in the league.  We will review the rookie performances of Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman.

In any assessment, it is always best to evaluate your first impressions and thoughts.  In early July, we profiled each player with our analysis, projected stats, and player comparisons.

Quarterbacks – 2009 Season Preview – July 10, 2009

Each rookie quarterback threw for a higher number of interceptions than we expected, but even Peyton Manning threw a league high 28 interceptions in his 1998 rookie season.  Read on for our take on each quarterback.

Matthew Stafford – Lions
2009 Projected Stats – 2209 yards passing, 12 TD, 15 INT, 97 yards rushing, 1 TD
2009 Actual Stats – 2267 yards passing, 13 TD, 20 INT, 108 yards rushing, 2 TD

Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions made Matthew Stafford their Week 1 starter at quarterback, and allowed him to take his lumps right out of the gate.  Stafford flashed enough potential to confirm the Lions made the right choice by taking him with the first overall selection in the 2009 NFL Draft.  Stafford led the Lions to an early season win over Washington that helped erase the memory of the winless 2008 team.  The Lions endured another tough season, but there is reason for hope in Detroit.

Stafford’s rookie season was cut short by injury and he was not given much help from his teammates.  His 20 interceptions are not alarming; Manning threw for 28 in his rookie season.  Stafford won over his teammates and the city of Detroit with his stirring last-second comeback win versus Cleveland in Week 11.  Stafford threw the game-winning touchdown with a dislocated shoulder he suffered on the second-to-last play of the game.  Once the Browns called a time out to align their goal line defense, Stafford dodged the trainers and coaching staff to take the final snap and throw for the game-winning touchdown.

Stafford represents a high-upside fantasy option as your backup quarterback in 2010.  Head Coach Jim Schwartz will continue to rebuild the Lions franchise from the ground up and Stafford should have an improved supporting cast to continue his development.

Mark Sanchez – Jets
2009 Projected Stats – 2408 yards passing, 11 TD, 12 INT, 67 yards rushing, 0 TD
2009 Actual Stats – 2444 yards passing, 12 TD, 20 INT, 106 yards rushing, 3 TD

Cincinnati Bengals v New York Jets

Mark Sanchez was named the Jets starter over veteran Kellen Clemens during the preseason by head coach Rex Ryan.  It proved to be a sound decision as the Jets were able to able to make the playoffs with their top overall defense and their power running game led by Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene.

In the preseason, we wrote that Sanchez’s rookie season would be similar to that of Joe Flacco’s rookie season in 2008.  Like Flacco, Sanchez managed the game for a playoff contender and converted the 3rd and long situations for the Jets offense.  Sanchez had an up-and-down season, and his rhythm seemed to be thrown off when wide receiver Braylon Edwards was acquired from the Cleveland Browns at midseason.  Sanchez was routinely let down by the untimely drops of Edwards after counting on Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller early in the season.  Ryan never lost confidence in his hand-picked quarterback, and the future looks bright in New York for Sanchez.

Mark Sanchez displayed all the necessary traits of a young franchise quarterback and his charisma and enthusiasm are a perfect fit to handle the fickle fans and media of New York.  Sanchez will eventually develop into a low-end fantasy starting quarterback, but he will have to contend with the swirling winds of the Meadowlands each winter.  The Jets will also remain a run-first offense under Rex Ryan, which could limit the value of Sanchez.  Sanchez will forever be linked to Matthew Stafford in his career and after one season, the early edge  has to go to Sanchez.

Josh Freeman – Buccaneers
2009 Projected Stats – 962 yards passing, 6 TD, 6 INT, 90 yards rushing, 0 TD
2008 Actual Stats – 1857 yards passing, 10 TD, 18 INT, 162 yards rushing, 0 TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Atlanta Falcons

Josh Freeman was handed the starting quarterback job by head coach Raheem Morris at midseason after the Buccaneers returned home from London, England.  Freeman received more playing time than we originally expected in the preseason, but the Buccaneers needed a spark after starting the season 0-7.  Freeman showed flashes of potential as he tried to live up to his first round selection and led the team to wins over the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints.

We were critical of the Buccaneers’ decision to reach for Freeman in the first round of the 2009 NFL Draft.  The Redskins also reached for their current quarterback, Jason Campbell in 2005, whose skill set and situation is almost identical to Freeman’s.  Both players share impressive physical tools, but would have been better suited in their development to sit and learn the NFL game first.

Freeman was not a starting fantasy option at quarterback in 2009 and the Buccaneers need to surround him with more offensive weapons to be an option in the future.  Freeman should develop into a capable starting NFL quarterback, but he will never develop into a top-tier franchise player.

Rookie Recap: Green Bay at Minnesota

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In the fifth edition of the Rookie Recap, I will breakdown the performances of Packers linebacker Clay Matthews and Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin.

Clay Matthews

Clay Matthews got the first start of his career against the Vikings, and he saw the majority of the snaps at outside linebacker.  Previous starter Brady Poppinga did not even make the box score as Matthews was constantly used as an edge rusher in an effort to get some pressure on Favre.    Matthews did not have a big day in the tackle department (1 tackle, 2 asst) but did score a defensive touchdown on Adrian Peterson’s fumble.  In an impressive display of athleticism and hustle, Matthews stripped Peterson of the football using only his left arm while the other Packers defenders kept Peterson upright.  Matthew’s 42 yard fumble return kept Green Bay within striking distance in the game.  Until Matthews starts getting more pressure on the QB, it would be best to keep Matthews reserved in your IDP leagues.  Matthews has the NFL pedigree to develop into a solid pro, but may never become a superstar.  A great comparison for Matthews would be a more athletic Mike Vrabel.

Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin finally got his chance to play in prime time in front of a national audience and he didn’t disappoint.  Harvin did not have a stellar day in the box score (2 rec for 39 yards, 3 returns for 51 yards) but made several plays that leads me to believe that he’s got a bright future in this league.  Harvin made an early impact with his run blocking, and he is quickly on his way to becoming one of the best run blocking wideouts in the league.  He completely took Packers cornerback Tramon Williams out of a play in the 1st Quarter with his aggressive style.  Harvin may be small, but he has a lot of strength and power in his frame.

Harvin is still learning the speed of the game.  He took a 4 yard loss on a bubble screen when he completely tried to reverse the field at the line of scrimmage.  That play worked often at the University of Florida, but he’ll need to learn to run more north and south in the pros.  Harvin did have a 43 yard reception on a go route from the slot and was tackled at the Green Bay 3 yard line.  Green Bay made stopping Harvin a focus, and as a result Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice had big fantasy days with a TD grab each.

Since Harvin has joined the Vikings I have seen no evidence that he has any of the poor character traits that caused him to slip in the NFL Draft.  With Harvin’s skill set, desire to be great, and his focus on run blocking it leaves little doubt that he’ll be one of the next superstars in the NFL.  We haven’t seen the best from him yet.

Rookie Recap: Washington at Detroit

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In the fourth edition of the Rookie Recap, I will breakdown the performances of Lions Quarterback Matthew Stafford and Redskins Linebacker Brian Orakpo.

Brian Orakpo

Hybrid defender Brian Orakpo notched the first sack of his career against the Lions in Week 3.  Orakpo also added 4 total tackles after being shut out statistically versus the Rams in Week 2.  Orakpo will never be a force in fantasy football if he remains eligible at strong side linebacker in many leagues.  He does retain some value in his ability to put his hand on the ground on third down to rush the quarterback, but that role would be better utilized in a traditional 3-4 scheme.  London Fletcher, LaRon Landry, and Rocky McIntosh dominated the tackle opportunities in this game, and that likely won’t change going forward this season.  Orakpo’s dynasty value is tied to eventually becoming defensive line eligible as his body matures as a pro.  He’s been often compared to DeMarcus Ware because they are both hybrid defenders, but Ware is in another class by himself.  Orakpo is definitely someone worth watching early in his career.

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford accomplished what Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper and Jon Kitna could not do in 2008; lead the Detroit Lions to victory.  The Number 1 overall draft pick in the 2009 NFL Draft helped the Lions snap their losing streak at 19 games with a 19-14 win over the Redskins.  Stafford had the best game of his young career as he played efficient football as the Lions controlled the clock for the majority of the game.  Stafford fired up his teammates by jawing with the Redskins defenders and displayed the enthusiasm and moxie that the Lions have been missing forever.  The talent level in Detroit is still subpar and the going will be rough at times in 2009, but the Lions do have some excellent building blocks in Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Head Coach Jim Schwartz.

Teams will continue to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and Bryant Johnson will have to continue to make big plays like his 21 yard touchdown grab in the 1st Quarter for Stafford to have any use as a starter in Fantasy Football this year.  I compared Stafford to Jay Cutler before the season started, and I stick by that assessment.  Stafford will run hot and cold, but his limited game action makes it quite obvious why he was the top overall selection.  I had written both Stafford and Mark Sanchez off from having any fantasy value this year, and I may rethink that stance.  Both are light years ahead in their anticipated development, and you’ll want to stash away both on your bench and keep an eye on them in your dynasty leagues for the future.

Rookie Recap: Indianapolis at Miami

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In the third edition of the Rookie Recap, I will breakdown the performances of Colts Running Back Donald Brown and Dolphins Wide Receiver Brian Hartline.

Brian Hartline

Brian Hartline did not start the game against the Colts as that honor went to Greg Camarillo.  Camarillo continues to split reps with the rookie Hartline, and though it seems to be working for the Dolphins it is limiting the fantasy potential of each.  In fact, Chad Pennington targeted Ted Ginn 16 times (11 rec, 108 yards receiving) and then sent 3 targets each to Davone Bess, Camarillo, and Hartline.  Ideally, the Dolphins would like to have Ginn and Hartline as their starters with Bess working the slot, and Camarillo working as the 4th WR in spread formations.  With the limited amount of targets Hartline did catch 2 balls for 23 yards, including an 18 yarder on the Dolphins first possession converting a 3rd and 2.

Brian Hartline is worth monitoring in dynasty leagues for your practice squad or the end of you bench.  The 3 way rotation at wide receiver the Dolphins are using and Chad Pennington’s limited arm strength limits his production for the 2009 season.  His upside is a solid #2 target like a Kevin Walter of the Texans.

Donald Brown

I’ve been on the Donald Brown bandwagon ever since the Colts drafted him in the first round this past April.  He fits that offense perfectly, and in his first two games in the NFL he has definitely proved that he belongs.  Brown finished with 4 carries for 26 yards and 1 reception for 24 yards on a wheel route from Peyton Manning.  Most importantly Brown scored the touchdown early in the 4th Quarter to tie the game on a 15 yard run.  In the two games I have seen the Colts play, Brown looks much quicker than Addai and is better at breaking tackles because he runs with his pads low.  In fact, Brown broke the attempted tackles of both rookie Sean Smith and Gibril Wilson to score the touchdown.

There has been no news out of Indianapolis that Brown has passed Addai on the depth chart, but you can be sure that with a performance like this his role will continue to grow as Manning and Head Coach Jim Caldwell gain more confidence in him.  You need to take note that Brown, not Addai, was the Colts lone running back in the 4th Quarter in crunch time.

Donald Brown will take the lead back role from Joseph Addai within a few weeks.  With every good performance like this one, the cost of acquiring this stellar rookie running back will continue to rise.  Make a strong trade offer for Brown while you can, he could end up helping you win your fantasy football title this year.

Rookie Recap: New York at Houston

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In the second edition of the Rookie Recap, I will breakdown the performances of Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez and Texans linebacker Brian Cushing.

Brian Cushing

Brian Cushing was deemed healthy enough to start against his former college roommate after struggling with a knee injury in the preseason.  Cushing got the nod at strongside linebacker and played mostly on running downs.  Cushing did not make any disruptive plays for the Texans, but tied DeMeco Ryans for the team lead in tackles with 8 combined.  What impressed me the most with Cushing was his speed, once he’s back 100% healthy and playing fulltime he’ll become a viable starting option for IDP fantasy leagues.

Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez won his debut against the Texans and showed the poise of an NFL veteran in the pocket.  His play on third down kept the Texans off the field allowed the Jets defense to really go after Matt Schaub and company.  He did under throw a pass to Dustin Keller that was picked off that led to the Texans scoring on a fumble recovery on the same play.  He also nearly threw an interception to Mario Williams as he misjudged how much ground the Pro Bowler could cover.

Sanchez did throw for the first touchdown of his career to Chansi Stuckey on a busted coverage play from rookie Brice McCain.  The Jets trusted their rookie signal caller enough to sprint out on a 3rd and 2 and hit Cotchery for a 25 yard catch and run in the 3rd quarter that helped set up the 1 yard touchdown run for Thomas Jones.  He later iced the game in the 4th quarter with a 40 yard strike to Dustin Keller on a beautifully thrown ball that took any of the momentum the Texans may have gained from their defensive touchdown.

Sanchez reminded me of how Brady or Manning create more time in the pocket by having the vision and footwork to sidestep the pass rush and keep their eyes downfield.  Sanchez appeared faster than advertised and the Jets will continue to have him sprint out on bootleg passes like Aaron Rodgers does for the Packers.  Sanchez has the moxie and charisma to elevate the play of his teammates and winning on the road in his first start will go a long way in showing them that he can be their franchise QB.

Sanchez now becomes a viable fantasy option as your 2nd quarterback with the weapons he has in New York.  This may be your last chance to grab him off the waiver wire if he is still available.  We are looking at the 2009 version of Matt Ryan.